Whitney Shannon Heckel,Staff Writer,Delta Farm Press
DEMAND-FOCUSED ENVIRONMENT: Joe Nicosia emphasized that for the U.S. cotton industry to thrive, it must shift its focus, placing less emphasis on supply and more on demand. “We are not going to win a production race,” he said of U.S. cotton production comparative to global supply.
At a Glance
- The U.S. remains the world’s largest exporter of cotton.
- The viability of the U.S. cotton industry requires inelastic demand.
- The Buying American Cotton Act can incentivize the use of U.S. cotton in domestically sold products.
“What can we do to give our industry a chance to not just survive, but to thrive?” asked Joe Nicosia, global trading operations officer and executive vice president, Louis Dreyfus Co., during his Outlook for U.S. and World Cotton presentation at the 2026 Mid-South Farm and Gin Show.
He said a solution for the U.S. cotton industry requires a shift in focus, with less emphasis on supply and more on demand. “For us to have a future, we need to make some changes,” he said. “One way we can do this is to create inelastic demand for our product.”
The most promising tool to foster a demand-focused environment, the Buying American Cotton Act, was introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives in January and in the Senate last May. During his presentation, Nicosia outlined the bill’s details and emphasized the need for “demand from the American consumer to strengthen American agriculture.”
Shifts in cotton production
Nicosia stressed that the U.S. cotton industry cannot chase production because other cotton-producing countries have increased their production, generating uncertainty and an imbalance in global supply.
For instance, China is now the highest-yielding country, averaging close to 2,300 lint pounds per acre. Following closely behind are Australia and Brazil. Meanwhile, the average U.S. cotton planted yield has seen a downtrend over the last 10 years, now averaging around 800 lint pounds per acre.
Although Nicosia acknowledged the U.S. average does not reflect higher regional yields, he underscored the urgency of the issue. “When other countries are yielding 200% to 300% higher than we are in America, we are not going to win the production race.”
Moreover, Brazil has more than tripled its annual cotton production in the past 10 years, from 6 million bales a decade ago to 19.5 million bales this year. The U.S. remains the largest exporter of cotton, but Nicosia said Brazil’s level of production presents a challenge to the U.S.
In India, cotton yields are low, but the country’s agricultural acreage is massive. Nicosia explained that if the average cotton yield in India increased by just 100 pounds, it would bump the country’s annual cotton production up tremendously. Therefore, India is a country we need to be watching, he said.
Another critical issue is cotton’s competition with polyester, and China is the largest global manufacturer of polyester, producing almost 65 million tons a year. Nicosia said this calculates to a cotton equivalent of almost 300 million bales. With China being the largest textile apparel exporter in the world, polyester has taken a sizeable portion of the market, threatening the demand for cotton.
As a result, other countries have expanded cotton activities. Bangladesh was the largest importer of cotton in 2024-25, and other countries, such as Vietnam and Pakistan, are also showing more interest in cotton.
“I believe our future hinges on our ability to attack the demand side of the coin,” Nicosia said.
Buying American Cotton Act
The U.S. is both the world’s largest importer of cotton goods and biggest spender on textile products ($320 billion annually). These cotton imports come out to around 16 million to 20 million bales a year, but the bad news is that 75% to 80% of every product imported into the U.S. supports foreign-grown cotton.
But if U.S. cotton production is around 15 million to 16 million bales each year, why isn’t the U.S. using its own cotton for the products and apparel sold domestically? This question has led industry leaders and legislators to explore how the U.S. can leverage its assets, and there is a solution on the horizon.
The Buying American Cotton Act (BACA) has been introduced in both houses of Congress. “It makes so much sense, and its amazing we haven’t already done it in the past,” Nicosia said. “We need to leverage the power of the U.S. consumer to strengthen American agriculture. We are not going to win a production war, but we can win a demand war.”
BACA aims to prioritize the use of American-grown cotton in federal government procurement to support domestic farmers and a viable U.S. cotton industry. The bill encourages the purchase of locally produced cotton by offering a tax credit to brands and retailers that prove they sell products with U.S.-grown cotton. It seeks to boost the economy, create jobs and reduce reliance on imports, and reflects a commitment to promoting American agriculture and ensuring sustainability in the cotton supply chain.
Nicosia expressed gratitude to Reps. Greg Murphy, R-N.C., and Terri Sewell, D-Ala., and Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, R-Miss., for their work in getting BACA before Congress. He also expressed thanks to other organizations that have supported the bill.
Some of the supporters in the retail sales industry include Gap, Levi Strauss & Co., Target, Under Armour and Victoria’s Secret. National industry associations also back it.
“Why is BACA resonating with so many different voters?” Nicosia asked. “The reason I think we are going to get BACA is because there is something in it for everyone. It is traceable and supports responsible production.”
BACA is in the early stages of the legislative process and awaiting committee review. If passed, the bill has the potential to raise awareness of cotton, boost cotton-rich products and incentivize brands and retailers to specifically ask for products to be made from cotton.
What will it take for a rally?
“The ability for this market to rally depends on its ability to increase demand,” Nicosia said, stressing that to support a rally, we need consumption to exceed production, and BACA has the potential to create inelastic demand for U.S. cotton.
In addition, he said, enumerating trade deals is necessary. “We need trade deals that are not ambiguous and tie down volume to buy from the United States or whether we give them the return trade back into the United States,” he said.
Finally, for inelastic demand, Nicosia said we need crop failures. While he does not wish that on the U.S., crop failure creates fear. “Today, no one is fearful because of the large supplies in South America on top of the North American crops. There is no fear of shortage, but crop failure will create that.”
If these three things come to pass – BACA, enumerated trade deals and crop failures – “Watch out, we are going to rise,” Nicosia said. “These are the things to light the fire, get the kindling and create the fear.”