With cotton prices hovering at almost US$0.92 per pound and expectations that the price will persist or rise even higher in the near future, some experts predict that textile manufacturers could shift to competing fibers such as polyester. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicts that prices will average US$0.89 per pound this year due to a number of factors:
• Historically low worldwide stocks;
• Export restrictions and adverse environmental conditions in some of the world’s top producers; and
• Continuing strong demand.
In the short term, cotton prices could spike an additional 32 percent -- to as much as US$1.25 per pound -- according to O.A. Cleveland, a professor emeritus in agricultural economics at Mississippi State University in the United States. At that price, cotton futures would be at their highest historical level based on exchange data that goes back more than 50 years.
According to a Sept. 8 story posted on www.foxbusiness.com, textile manufacturers might try to stabilize their increasing costs by shifting to other fibers, such as polyester. U.S. manufacturers can take steps in the short term to mitigate the increase in cotton prices, such as increasing their own internal efficiencies, but modest price increases could be passed on to consumers in coming months.
Consumer preference for cotton remains strong, according to the Cotton Incorporated Retail Monitor, helping the natural fiber maintain a three-quarter share of retail apparel products.