In its February estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2020-21 beginning from October 1, 2020, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has reduced the country's crop estimate for the current season by 1.50 lakh bales to 358.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each (i.e. 380.91 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) from its previous estimate of 360 lakh bales.
The total cotton supply for the five-month period from October 2020 to February 2021 is estimated by the CAI at 430.89 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which consists of the arrivals of 298.89 lakh bales, imports of 7 lakh bales, and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 125 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2020 to February 2021 at 137.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each, while the export shipments up to February 28, 2021 are estimated at 36 lakh bales.
Stock at the end of February 2021 is estimated at 257.39 lakh of 170 kg each, including 92.50 lakh bales with textile mills, and the remaining 164.89 lakh bales with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc, including the cotton sold but not delivered).
The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2020-21 i.e. up to September 30, 2021 at 495.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each. The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 125 lakh bales of 170 kg each at the beginning of the cotton season on October 1, 2020, crop for the season estimated at 358.50 lakh bales, and the imports now estimated at 12 lakh bales as against 15.50 lakh bales estimated for the previous cotton season 2019-20.
The CAI has retained the domestic consumption estimate at the pre-lockdown level of 330 lakh bales of 170 kg each. The exports for the season have now been revised to 60 lakh bales from the previous month’s estimate of 54 lakh bales. The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2019-20 was of 50 lakh bales.
The carry-over stock at the end of the cotton season 2020-21 on September 30, 2021, is estimated by the CAI at 105.50 lakh bales, as against 107.50 lakh bales estimated earlier.