Cotton Highlights from December WASDE Report

Cotton Highlights from December WASDE Report

By Jim Steadman 

The December 2019 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report has been released by USDA. Here’s this month’s summary for cotton:

This month’s outlook for U.S. cotton in 2019/20 includes lower production and ending stocks compared with last month. Production is lowered 611,000 bales, mainly due to a 500,000-bale decline in Texas. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are 600,000 bales lower this month, at 5.5 million. Upland cotton’s season-average farm price is also unchanged at 61 cents per pound.

The global 2019/20 cotton forecasts include lower beginning stocks and production, largely offset by lower consumption. A nearly 900,000-bale decline this month in beginning stocks is led by a 700,000-bale reduction in India, following a report by India’s Cotton Advisory Board that lowered India’s 2018/19 cotton crop by a similar amount.

World cotton production in 2019/20 is projected at 121.1 million bales – down 830,000 from November, and 3.0 million higher than in 2018/19. Production changes for 2019/20 this month other than the United States include decreases of 800,000 bales for Pakistan, 500,000 for India, and smaller declines for Australia, Turkey and Chad. Partly offsetting are a 900,000-bale increase in Brazil’s projected crop, a 500,000-bale increase for Uzbekistan, and several smaller gains.

A 1.2-million-bale decline this month in projected world consumption is led by a 1.0-million-bale reduction for China, due in part to lower textile exports. The consumption forecasts for Vietnam and Pakistan were also reduced, offsetting a small increase for Uzbekistan.

Global 2019/20 ending stocks are nearly 500,000 bales lower this month. At 80.3 million bales, total ending stocks are only projected about 600,000 bales higher than in 2018/19, but stocks outside of China are expected to rise 3.1 million bales from the year before.


Source: Cotton Grower
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