The June 2020 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report has been released by USDA. Here’s the monthly cotton summary:
The most significant revision to this month’s U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates is a 200,000-bale decrease in 2019/20 mill use, to 2.5 million bales. U.S. mill use in 2020/21 was also revised downward by 100,000 bales, and ending stocks are now projected at 7.3 million bales in 2019/20 and 8.0 million bales in 2020/21. While the 43% stocks-use ratio projected for 2020/21 is marginally higher than the year before and is substantially above recent levels, it would still be below the 55% ratio realized in 2007/08.
The 2020/21 world cotton projections include slightly smaller production, reduced consumption, and higher beginning and ending stocks. World ending stocks are 5.2 million bales higher this month, reflecting cuts to world consumption of slightly more than 2 million bales each in 2019/20 and 2020/21, and revised production estimates for Argentina starting with 2017/18 that added an additional 930,000 bales to stocks. World production in 2020/21 is revised downward by 215,000 bales, as higher production in Argentina and Tanzania is offset by reductions for Turkey, Uzbekistan and some smaller countries. World consumption in 2020/21 is revised downward due to changes in a number of countries, led by a 1 million bale reduction in the forecast for China and a 500,000-bale reduction for India.
At nearly 105 million bales, world ending stocks in 2020/21 are expected to be their largest since 2014/15.