By Jim Steadman
The October 2019 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report has been released by USDA. Here’s this month’s summary for cotton:
The 2019/20 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show slightly lower production and ending stocks compared with last month. Production is lowered less than 1% to 21.7 million bales, largely the result of a reduction in Texas. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged from last month, and ending stocks are reduced 200,000 bales. At 7.0 million bales, U.S. ending stocks in 2019/20 are projected at 36% of use, compared with 27% in 2018/19. The 2019/20 season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 58 cents per pound, unchanged from last month and 12.5 cents lower than in 2018/19.
The 2019/20 global cotton supply and demand forecasts show little overall change from last month. World production is 130,000 bales lower, as declines for Brazil, Pakistan, Australia and the United States more than offset a 1-million-bale increase in India. Global consumption is 130,000 bales lower than September’s forecast, and the projection for world trade in 2019/20 is reduced 300,000 bales. Lower expected imports for China and Vietnam more than offset increases for Pakistan and Turkey. Exports for Australia and Brazil are also lower. World ending stocks in 2019/20 are now forecast at 83.7 million bales – virtually unchanged from the September forecast but 3.0 million bales higher than in 2018/19.