EUR/US$: 1.1204
U.S. Cotton: Strong Rally Lifts December Back Above 80 Cents
Barchart: Cotton futures opened the week sharply higher, closing 103 to 222 points up across the board, with Dec26 at 80.86 cents (+198 points), Mar27 at 83.71 (+217) and Oct26 at 77.13 (+198). Crude oil fell about 1.8% on the session and the dollar index edged higher. The Seam reported sales of 1,109 bales on Friday at an average of 74.16 cents/lb. The Cotlook A Index was down 80 points at 88.35 on October 2. ICE certified stocks dropped by 5,777 bales to 22,240, and the Adjusted World Price stands at 65.16 cents/lb.
Source: Barchart
U.S. Cotton: Physical Inquiry Returns as Futures Gain 310 Points in Two Sessions
Calcot (Cindy Walters): Cotton finished close to its daily high for a second straight session, and Monday's gains were nearly twice Friday's: December settled at 80.86 cents, up 198 points, for a two-session recovery of 310 points, with the front months leading. Volume was 63,113 contracts and open interest stood at 383,640, up 622. Inquiry for U.S. cotton appeared over the weekend with pockets of business getting done, and mills continued to fix on-call sales. Markets were generally higher and cotton was among the better performers; crude oil fell 1.8% as flows through the Strait of Hormuz improved and the G7's planned release of 100 million barrels added to supply expectations. The dollar index has now risen in five of the last six sessions and the U.S. 10-year yield reached 5.31%, its highest since 2002. Certified stocks fell by 5,777 bales to 22,240, bringing decertifications since the end of June to 164,943 bales, only partly offset by last week's 2,149 bales of new certifications — the first from the 2026/27 crop. Technically, December traded above its 10-day moving average (80.95) for the first time in this decline but settled below it; holding above would be a solid start for bulls. With December back above 80 cents, the daily trading limit is 400 points from the October 6 session. November options expire on October 15.
Source: Calcot
U.S. Cotton: Dollar, China's Return and Friday's USDA Report Will Set the Tone
PCCA: After last week's sell-off, PCCA sees a few things underneath the market that look a little better, but three factors will decide whether cotton finds its footing. The dollar is the biggest outside influence, at its highest since early 2025 on higher bond yields and a hawkish Fed; Fed minutes are due Wednesday, though next week's inflation data will be the bigger test, and the odds of a rate move this month have fallen after September payrolls rose by just 29,000. China returns from holiday on Thursday with still no real clarity on what the tariff changes mean for cotton, although U.S. cotton looks competitive enough to keep the conversation going. And Friday's USDA update is expected to lower the U.S. crop from 13.2 million bales given conditions across the Southwest. Recent rain in West Texas arrived with much of the cotton already open — too late to help production and a risk to quality — while the Delta and Southeast also have plenty of open cotton with more rain forecast. On demand, a second week of upland sales above 200,000 bales suggests lower prices are attracting buyers, though shipments still lag. Record open interest as prices fell and commercial buying at lower levels were also worth noting. Rising diesel prices are a further cost for growers as harvest begins, and several states including Texas have temporarily eased rules on using dyed farm diesel on public roads.
Source: PCCA
Greece: Futures at a Three-Month Low Bring the Physical Market to Life
Agronews (Giannis Papadogiannis): New York's fall to a three-month low is put down to liquidation by speculative funds, the stronger dollar and the high expectations that had built up for a deal at the Trump-Xi meeting. The upside of the drop is that demand in the physical market has strengthened, which usually brings a quick upward reaction, while the situation in Texas remains problematic. In Greece, the rains are a worry because they downgrade the colour of the fibre, but so far growers and merchants report no major quality problems and the other characteristics are satisfactory. On sales, the trading houses have raised the premium over futures slightly following the sharp fall, while Turkish spinners are asking for cotton on 360-day credit through banks — a sign, the author says, that the golden days of Turkish textiles belong to the past.
Source: Agronews
Brazil: Cotton Prices Down 4.38% in September on Thin Spot Trading
Fibre2Fashion: The CEPEA/ESALQ Cotton Index fell 4.38% in September to BRL 4.1738 per pound ($0.80) on September 30, as sellers became more flexible and buyers limited purchases to immediate needs amid sluggish sales of finished goods. Spot trading was sporadic, with the trade focused on delivering forward contracts, especially for export. Forward selling is advanced: BBM data show 1.124 million tonnes of the 2025/26 crop registered (27% of Conab's estimate) and at least 408,000 tonnes of 2026/27 (10%), while in Mato Grosso Imea put sales at 75.52% of the 2025/26 crop and 39.34% of 2026/27, the latter well ahead of the five-season average of 34.48%. Exports accelerated, reaching 166,000 tonnes in the first 18 working days of September — 55.8% above August, with the daily average of 9,200 tonnes up 13.3% on a year earlier. Cotton Outlook's September report put 2026/27 world production at 25.38 million tonnes and consumption at 26.42 million, a gap of about 4%, and sees Brazil's crop at 4.0 million tonnes in 2026/27, down 9.09% from 4.4 million in 2025/26.
Source: Fibre2Fashion
U.S. Cotton: "American Elite Upland" — a New Category Between Upland and ELS
Cotton Grower: Growers on the Southern High Plains of Texas have been planting a new type of Upland cotton whose fibre is closer to Extra Long Staple, and the industry has now settled on a name for it: American Elite Upland. The category raised practical questions from the start — saw gin or roller gin, stripper or spindle picker — and Ken Legé of Texas A&M AgriLife says access to spindle picking and roller ginning may be needed to capture the full premium. Nutrien's DynaGro P224 B3XF is the early benchmark, and the company's forthcoming Llano Series will require a staple length of at least 1.36 inches, with commercial varieties targeted for 2028; lines from Stoneville, Deltapine, PhytoGen and NexGen are also in trials, and Cotton Incorporated is funding work across the Cotton Belt on production, harvesting and ginning practices. The aim is an intermediate quality market that does not undercut either ELS or standard Upland, and early signs are that mills are interested: some High Plains growers reported premiums approaching 30 cents per pound over standard Upland in 2025. Legé links the interest to water: with the Ogallala Aquifer declining, growers concentrating irrigation on fewer acres want more revenue from the same inputs. Legally the cotton remains Upland — only 100% Pima and first-generation Pima-Upland hybrids, roller-ginned, qualify as ELS.
Source: Cotton Grower
U.S. Cotton: Harvest at 23% as Condition Slips Again
USDA: As of October 4, bolls were open on 74% of the U.S. cotton crop, up from 70% a week earlier and slightly behind the five-year average of 76%. Harvest reached 23%, against 17% the previous week and a five-year average of 21%. The share rated good to excellent fell to 33% from 35%, while poor to very poor rose to 37% from 35%. In Texas, 63% of bolls were open (average 69%) and 35% of the crop was harvested (average 30%), with only 15% rated good to excellent and 54% poor to very poor. Year-ago comparisons are not available because of last October's federal government shutdown.
Source: USDA
India: Textile Output Jumps 13.1% in August While Garment Production Falls 7.4%
Textiles Resources: India's industrial production rose 8% year on year in August, but the two ends of the textile chain moved in opposite directions: textile output climbed 13.1% while apparel production contracted 7.4%. Over April-August, yarn and fabric output was up 11.9% and apparel down 5.6%. Apparel has swung widely over the past twelve months and has now fallen in both July and August, whereas textiles rebounded sharply in March and have held that level since. A. Sakthivel, chairman of the Apparel Export Promotion Council, says the two categories respond to different drivers — raw-material prices, stocks and intermediate demand upstream; export orders, buyers' inventories and global retail demand for garments — and notes that yarn prices have risen lately. He warns that a prolonged contraction in garments could hit manufacturing, exports, investment and jobs. The domestic market absorbs about 80% of a textile market valued at Rs 14.95 trillion, and India aims to raise apparel exports to US$40 billion by 2030 from roughly $16 billion now, seeking new free trade agreements to widen its customer base.
Source: Textiles Resources
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