EUR/US$: 1.1225
U.S. Cotton: Futures Start the Week with Modest Gains
Barchart: Cotton futures posted slight gains on Monday, closing 1 to 19 points higher, as crude oil rose and the dollar firmed. The Seam sold 1,729 bales on October 16 at an average of 74.28 cents/lb, while the Cotlook A Index fell 35 points to 91.10 cents. ICE certificated stocks were unchanged at 15,129 bales and the Adjusted World Price stood at 64.61 cents/lb. Dec 26 settled at 80.13 (+13), Mar 27 at 83.43 (+19) and May 27 at 85.09 (+16).
Source: Barchart
U.S. Cotton: Higher Close on Light Volume, Brazilian Cotton Dominates ICA Buying
Calcot – Cindy Walters: December settled at 80.13, up 13 points, still within the 79.23–82.25 range of the last ten sessions. Volume of 34,047 contracts was the seventh lightest of 2026, yet open interest set a fifth consecutive record on Friday at 398,469 contracts, the 24th record of the year. Reports after last week's ICA Trade Event in Istanbul indicated that several countries bought cotton, mainly Brazilian, while little involved U.S. cotton, which remained less competitive on price. Grains extended their slide, with corn down 8.1%, wheat 7.0% and soybeans 3.8% over nine sessions. November crude rose 2.2% to a new contract high, its eighth consecutive higher close, as the U.S.–Iran war continued to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. December again settled below its 10-day moving average, and the Dec/March spread widened to 330 points March premium.
Source: Calcot
Greece: Positive Market Mood at the ICA Conference
Agronews – Giannis Papadogiannis: The mood for cotton prices was broadly positive at the ICA conference in Istanbul, with the market seeking balance around 81 cents/lb within an expected 78–85 cent range, and the upper end the more likely to be tested. Mills are fixing near 78 cents and producers toward 85, while buyers are paying 2–3 cents above December futures. USDA and ICAC reports have confirmed a short crop this season, and conditions in Texas add to supply concerns. In Greece, the recovery in futures has brought fresh demand and early crop prospects look good, while a weaker Turkish crop in both quality and quantity should support demand for Greek cotton. The main problem for Greek producers remains the premium, which is under pressure from low-priced Brazilian cotton.
Source: Agronews
Global: A Market in Transition at the ICA Conference
Mambo – Armand Ezerzer: The ICA annual conference in Istanbul discussed a market in rapid transition, in a combative tone. The U.S. is no longer the leading cotton exporter, with Brazil taking first place thanks to its low production costs, as Brazilian and U.S. production curves crossed in 2023. ICE New York futures still set world prices even though only U.S. cotton is deliverable, while a mechanism for Brazilian basis remains unclear. Proposed U.S. measures on imported textiles and polyester use are expected to support domestic production, although Ezerzer questions whether a country consuming only a small share of its output can keep producing so much. Discussions also covered El Niño's impact on the Indian monsoon, India's import exemptions and Brazil's growing share of Chinese imports. Africa was largely absent, as high production costs keep its quality cotton from gaining recognition. On the positive side, the dollar's recovery and steady demand helped many deals to be concluded at the conference.
Source: Mambo
U.S. Cotton: Weekly Crop Progress
USDA: Bolls opening reached 85% of the U.S. crop, up from 82% the previous week but behind the 89% five-year average. Harvest advanced to 41%, from 31% a week earlier and ahead of the 37% average. Condition was rated 35% good-to-excellent, up 1 point on the week, while 37% was rated poor-to-very poor. Year-ago comparisons are not available, as no report was issued during the 43-day federal government shutdown in October 2025.
Source: USDA NASS
U.S. Cotton: The Fed, Commodity Selling and Harvest Quality in Focus
PCCA: Cotton enters another week struggling to move beyond 80 cents, with the Fed, a commodity sell-off and harvest progress in focus. A rate hike at the October 28 Fed meeting still looks unlikely, but September inflation data (CPI +3.7% year on year, producer prices +1.3% on the month) keeps it on the table, and a surprise move would boost the dollar and pressure cotton. Speculative selling across agriculture remains a risk while funds hold sizable long positions. Open interest reached record levels as traders rolled out of December into deferred months. Rain in West Texas and Oklahoma slowed harvest, the first freeze reached parts of the High Plains, and early West Texas classing results raise quality concerns, while drier weather should help the Delta and Southeast. USDA also announced two new initiatives under the Great American Cotton Plan: expanded crop insurance options and a trade program encouraging purchases of U.S. cotton.
Source: PCCA
Pakistan: Cotton Arrivals Up 7.5% Despite Sector Crisis
Dawn – Amjad Mahmood: Cotton arrivals at Pakistani gins reached 4.08 million bales by October 15, up 7.53% year on year, with Punjab at 1.64 million (+7.79%) and Sindh at 2.44 million (+7.35%). Textile mills bought about 3.45 million bales and exporters 97,000, leaving some 531,500 unsold. Industry groups describe a sector in crisis, with about 500 gins and over 150 textile mills closed and nearly half of power looms idle. Imports of man-made yarn under the Export Facilitation Scheme quadrupled to 12,773 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026-27, and man-made fabric imports jumped from 660 to 8,628 tonnes; APTMA is calling for restrictions. Ginners warn that adverse weather could push output below earlier estimates, while traders are urging the government to announce a cotton support price.
Source: Dawn
Global: Cotton Returns to Turbulent Waters
Modaes – Christian De Angelis: After relatively stable prices in 2024 and 2025, cotton has entered a new period of volatility. Prices rose 21% from the end of 2025 to early October 2026, from 64.27 to 77.79 cents/lb, after peaking at 93.14 cents on August 31, almost 45% above the end-2025 level. In the short term, production in the U.S., China, Pakistan and Turkey could fall nearly 4% in 2026-27, mainly due to weather, while global stocks are low and consumption is rising; USDA projects output of 117.3 million bales against consumption of 122.9 million. In the longer term, the OECD expects world production to grow 1.6% a year to 30 million tonnes by 2035, stocks to rebuild and real prices to ease slightly. By 2035 Brazil is projected to account for 39% of world exports, the U.S. 27% and Australia 11%.
Source: Modaes
China: Cotton Imports Plunge in September
SunSirs: China imported about 50,000 tonnes of cotton in September, down 37.9% month on month and 42.6% year on year, the first annual decline of the 2026/27 season and far steeper than expected. Imports for the first nine months of 2026 still reached about 1.16 million tonnes, up 69.6%. Industry observers cite several reasons: buyers held back after the late-August rally, expecting a correction; Chinese cotton products are not on the U.S. tariff-reduction list; remaining 1% tariff-rate quota volumes were below 250,000 tonnes at the end of August; and high-quality cotton was scarce during the transition between old and new crops, with new-crop Brazilian shipments concentrated in September–November.
Source: SunSirs
Global: Gins Hold the Key to Cotton Traceability
AgFunderNews – Jennifer Marston: A new WhoMadeMyCotton study by the Cotton Diaries research collective finds that traceability weakens the closer one gets to the raw crop, as cotton passes through cooperatives, traders, financiers and other intermediaries. Gins are identified as the key gap: they hold most of the data needed to establish origin, including who delivered the cotton, locations, volumes, quality and transactions, yet many textile and fashion companies do not even know what a gin is. The authors propose "relational traceability," combining data with long-term relationships with farmers, cooperatives and ginners, and warn that early field intelligence matters, citing reports that Turkish production has fallen by up to 40%.
Source: AgFunderNews
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