COTTON: The 2009/10 U.S. cotton supply and demand
estimates show sharply higher exports, lower ending stocks,
and higher prices relative to last month. Production and
domestic mill use are unchanged. The export forecast is
raised 1.0 million bales to 12.0 million, as new export sales of
more than 1.8 million bales were made in January. Led by a
drop in the New York futures market, recent lower prices for
U.S. cotton combined with strong foreign mill demand have
boosted export prospects. Accordingly, U.S. ending stocks
are now forecast at 3.3 million bales, 21.4 percent of total
use. If realized, this would be the lowest stocks-to-use ratio
since 2003/04. The forecast range of 59 to 65 cents per
pound for the marketing-year average price received by
producers is raised 2 cents on the lower end and 1 cent on
the upper end, based on a higher-than-expected average
price received for the month of December.
This month’s world cotton 2009/10 forecasts show higher
beginning stocks, largely offset by higher consumption.
Beginning stocks are raised in China due to modest
reductions in estimated consumption for marketing years
2007/08 and 2008/09. World production is virtually
unchanged. Higher forecast 2009/10 world consumption
includes increases for China and India, based on a stronger
estimated recovery in demand than previously anticipated.
Total world trade is about unchanged, as higher U.S. exports
are mainly offset by a reduction in exports by India. World
ending stocks are raised marginally from last month.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
2007/08 : 119.91 183.04 38.47 122.97 62.66
2008/09 (Est.) : 107.45 170.11 30.23 110.11 62.42
2009/10 (Proj.) :
January : 102.71 163.64 33.66 114.36 51.72
February : 102.74 165.16 33.77 115.53 52.08
: United States
2007/08 : 19.21 28.70 13.65 4.59 10.04
2008/09 (Est.) : 12.82 22.86 13.28 3.59 6.34
2009/10 (Proj.) :
January : 12.40 18.74 11.00 3.40 4.30
February : 12.40 18.74 12.00 3.40 3.30
: Foreign 3/
2007/08 : 100.70 154.34 24.82 118.38 52.61
2008/09 (Est.) : 94.64 147.25 16.95 106.52 56.08
2009/10 (Proj.) :
January : 90.31 144.90 22.66 110.96 47.42
February : 90.34 146.42 21.77 112.13 48.78
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.
WASDE-479-17 February 2010
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2009/10 Projections
Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :===============================
: : Est. : January February
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 10.83 9.47 9.15 9.15
Harvested : 10.49 7.57 7.69 7.69
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 879 813 774 774
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 9.48 10.04 6.34 6.34
Production : 19.21 12.82 12.40 12.40
Imports : 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total : 28.70 22.86 18.74 18.74
Domestic use : 4.59 3.59 3.40 3.40
Exports : 13.65 13.28 11.00 12.00
Use, total : 18.24 16.86 14.40 15.40
Unaccounted 3/ : 0.41 -0.34 0.04 0.04
Ending stocks : 10.04 6.34 4.30 3.30
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 59.3 47.8 57.0-64.0 59.0-65.0
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
===============================================================================
WASDE-479-26 February 2010
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
================================================================================
: Supply : Use : :
Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending
:Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks
: stocks : tion : : : : :
================================================================================
:
: 2007/08
:
World : 63.13 119.91 38.99 122.97 38.47 -2.06 62.66
United States : 9.48 19.21 0.01 4.59 13.65 0.41 10.04
Total foreign : 53.66 100.70 38.98 118.38 24.82 -2.47 52.61
Major exporters 4/ : 19.90 46.47 1.56 28.18 21.11 -0.16 18.81
Central Asia 5/ : 2.14 8.20 0.04 1.61 6.35 0.00 2.42
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.06 2.46 3/ 0.19 2.66 0.00 0.67
S. Hemis. 7/ : 7.96 9.72 0.53 6.00 4.09 -0.18 8.30
Australia : 1.18 0.64 3/ 0.05 1.22 -0.05 0.60
Brazil : 5.41 7.36 0.16 4.60 2.23 -0.15 6.25
India : 7.66 24.00 0.60 18.60 7.03 0.00 6.63
Major importers 8/ : 31.73 51.46 34.81 85.75 2.66 -2.31 31.91
Mexico : 1.03 0.62 1.53 2.00 0.22 0.03 0.93
China : 20.54 37.00 11.53 51.00 0.06 -2.50 20.50
EU-27 9/ : 0.83 1.74 1.59 1.81 1.62 0.05 0.67
Turkey : 1.95 3.10 3.27 6.00 0.37 0.00 1.95
Pakistan : 4.88 8.90 3.91 12.00 0.27 0.03 5.39
Indonesia : 0.35 0.03 2.30 2.23 0.02 0.05 0.39
Thailand : 0.35 0.02 1.93 1.95 0.00 0.03 0.32
Bangladesh : 0.59 0.04 3.50 3.50 0.00 0.01 0.62
Vietnam : 0.22 0.03 1.21 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.25
:
: 2008/09 (Estimated)
:
World : 62.66 107.45 30.06 110.11 30.23 -2.59 62.42
United States : 10.04 12.82 3/ 3.59 13.28 -0.34 6.34
Total foreign : 52.61 94.64 30.06 106.52 16.95 -2.25 56.08
Major exporters 4/ : 18.81 42.42 1.54 26.90 13.98 -0.19 22.08
Central Asia 5/ : 2.42 7.12 0.01 1.60 4.45 0.00 3.49
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.67 2.41 3/ 0.19 2.20 0.00 0.70
S. Hemis. 7/ : 8.30 8.68 0.31 5.52 4.60 -0.20 7.38
Australia : 0.60 1.50 3/ 0.05 1.20 -0.07 0.93
Brazil : 6.25 5.48 0.05 4.20 2.74 -0.15 4.99
India : 6.63 22.60 0.80 17.90 2.36 0.00 9.77
Major importers 8/ : 31.91 49.54 26.05 75.39 1.93 -2.06 32.24
Mexico : 0.93 0.58 1.32 1.85 0.18 0.03 0.77
China : 20.50 36.70 7.00 44.00 0.08 -2.25 22.37
EU-27 9/ : 0.67 1.24 0.96 1.14 1.01 0.05 0.66
Turkey : 1.95 1.93 2.89 5.00 0.14 0.00 1.63
Pakistan : 5.39 9.00 2.00 11.50 0.43 0.03 4.44
Indonesia : 0.39 0.03 2.00 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.35
Thailand : 0.32 0.02 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.03 0.30
Bangladesh : 0.62 0.04 3.80 3.75 0.00 0.01 0.70
Vietnam : 0.25 0.01 1.23 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.24
================================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects
cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil,
China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.
8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan,
Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
WASDE-479-27 February 2010
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
================================================================================
: Supply : Use : :
Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending
:Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks
: stocks : tion : : : : :
================================================================================
:
: 2009/10 (Projected)
World :
January : 60.93 102.71 33.65 114.36 33.66 -2.46 51.72
February : 62.42 102.74 33.76 115.53 33.77 -2.46 52.08
United States :
January : 6.34 12.40 0.01 3.40 11.00 0.04 4.30
February : 6.34 12.40 0.01 3.40 12.00 0.04 3.30
Total foreign :
January : 54.59 90.31 33.64 110.96 22.66 -2.50 47.42
February : 56.08 90.34 33.76 112.13 21.77 -2.50 48.78
Major exporters 4/ :
January : 22.08 42.76 1.36 27.76 19.64 -0.19 18.99
February : 22.08 42.81 1.36 28.21 18.74 -0.19 19.49
Central Asia 5/Jan : 3.49 6.37 0.01 1.59 6.02 0.00 2.26
Feb : 3.49 6.37 0.01 1.59 6.02 0.00 2.26
Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jan : 0.70 2.38 3/ 0.19 2.26 0.00 0.64
Feb : 0.70 2.38 3/ 0.19 2.26 0.00 0.64
S. Hemis 7/ Jan : 7.38 9.09 0.35 5.51 4.49 -0.20 7.02
Feb : 7.38 9.14 0.35 5.51 4.49 -0.20 7.07
Australia Jan : 0.93 1.75 3/ 0.04 1.70 -0.07 1.01
Feb : 0.93 1.75 3/ 0.04 1.70 -0.07 1.01
Brazil Jan : 4.99 5.55 0.10 4.20 2.00 -0.15 4.59
Feb : 4.99 5.55 0.10 4.20 2.00 -0.15 4.59
India Jan : 9.77 23.50 0.60 18.75 6.60 0.00 8.52
Feb : 9.77 23.50 0.60 19.20 5.70 0.00 8.97
Major importers 8/ :
January : 30.74 45.02 29.68 78.95 2.00 -2.31 26.80
February : 32.24 45.02 29.77 79.70 2.00 -2.31 27.64
Mexico Jan : 0.77 0.42 1.50 1.90 0.10 0.03 0.66
Feb : 0.77 0.42 1.50 1.90 0.10 0.03 0.66
China Jan : 20.87 32.00 9.00 46.75 0.08 -2.50 17.54
Feb : 22.37 32.00 9.00 47.50 0.08 -2.50 18.29
EU-27 9/ Jan : 0.66 1.01 0.93 1.00 1.06 0.05 0.48
Feb : 0.66 1.01 0.92 1.00 1.07 0.05 0.47
Turkey Jan : 1.63 1.70 3.30 5.10 0.13 0.00 1.41
Feb : 1.63 1.70 3.30 5.10 0.13 0.00 1.41
Pakistan Jan : 4.44 9.80 2.65 12.00 0.50 0.03 4.36
Feb : 4.44 9.80 2.75 12.00 0.50 0.03 4.46
Indonesia Jan : 0.35 0.03 2.08 2.05 0.02 0.05 0.33
Feb : 0.35 0.03 2.08 2.05 0.02 0.05 0.33
Thailand Jan : 0.30 0.01 1.80 1.78 0.00 0.03 0.31
Feb : 0.30 0.01 1.80 1.78 0.00 0.03 0.31
Bangladesh Jan : 0.70 0.04 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.01 0.73
Feb : 0.70 0.04 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.01 0.73
Vietnam Jan : 0.24 0.01 1.35 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.25
Feb : 0.24 0.01 1.35 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.25
================================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects
cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and
the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on
supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales.
4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed.
5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad,
Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia,
Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the
countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea,
and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.