NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Steady buying pushed ICE Futures U.S. cotton to
17-month highs Monday as strong physical deliveries provided bullish cues.
Most-active May cotton settled up 72 points, or 0.9%, at 79.70 cents a pound,
off of the 79.79 high. It was the contract's strongest price since Sep. 22,
2008.
Cotton kicked off the session with a strong start after major merchants
issued and stopped nearly 2,000 cotton contracts on March's first notice day.
Strong demand has supported cotton prices, which have risen 18% since Feb. 5
basis May. Hand-to-mouth mill buying amid growing retail textile demand is
sparking renewed speculative interest in the market due to a strong technical
chart showing, analysts said.
Most-active May futures found resistance at 79.50 as profit taking kicked in
following the recent rally, but buying at intraday lows led prices to the
17-month high.
Buying on dips will keep cotton prices supported amid bullish supply and
demand fundamentals, Ron Lawson, managing director at LOGIC Investment Services
in Napa Valley, Calif.
Analysts said speculative traders are taking new bullish long positions while
commercial traders exit shorts lots, or bets that prices will fall.
Both March and May cotton prices could face stiff resistance at the 80
cents-83 cents level, said John Flanagan, president of Flanagan Trading Corp.
in Fuquay-Varina, N.C.
Analysts said strong demand prospects and upward price potential are well
known and applicable to the March, May and July futures contracts.
Most recent USDA data anticipated world cotton production would fall 12.4%
short of demand in the August-July crop year, while adding another 9% to
outlooks for U.S. cotton exports. The change whittled available cotton stocks
by 23.25% in the U.S., the world's top cotton exporter. Demand from overseas
mills had surged as prices backed off early in the year, though analysts note
prices are again string from levels considered affordable to mills.
ICE daily cotton stocks increased by 9,322 500-pound bales Friday to total
517,172 bales--on par with weekly certificated stocks--with 32,855 bales
awaiting review, according to exchange data.
ICE cotton open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--increased by 1,108 positions Friday to total 164,543, according to
the exchange.
Volume was estimated lots. In options, approximately 4,192 calls and 2,113
puts traded, according to exchange data.
Close Change Range
Mar 80.74 +195 pts 78.79-80.89
May 79.70 + 72 pts 78.46-79.79
Dec 73.43 + 77 pts 72.31-73.74