Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market was sharply lower Tuesday. An early-morning hot CPI number resulted in a strong dollar, plus aggravated fears that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates a full point at its next meeting. That sent many markets, including cotton, demonstratively lower. In fact, cotton threatened to trade limit-down, while the Dow Jones dropped over 1,000 points lower.
Wednesday, the Labor Department will issue its Producer Prices index (PPI). Now traders are anticipating a strong number in that data. The PPI reflects prices at the producer level. If it also is higher than expected, it will give the Federal Reserve yet another reason to floor the pedal in higher rates.
On Thursday, USDA will supposedly issue an updated export-sales report. That data has been absent from the market for several weeks, as the government's earlier attempt to affect a new reporting platform miserably failed. Some analysts are speculating that the sales number could exceed 1 million bales.
Weather-wise, the one- to five-day forecast indicates little from Texas to the Delta to the Southeast. The six- to 10-day and the extended eight- to 14-day outlooks show normal to below-normal chances of precipitation across those states. In some areas, the 2022 harvest is just getting underway, so the clear skies outlook is welcomed.
For Tuesday, December closed at 102.32 cents, down 3.39 cents, March 2023 finished at 99.01 cents, down 3.36 cents and July 2023 settled at 94.00 cents, 2.91 cents lower; estimated volume was 25,291 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
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