Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market was lower Friday amid USDA planting Intentions for 2023. The rounded government number was 11.30 million acres. That number compares to the USDA Ag Forum of 10.98 million. Last year the number was 13.80 million.
In fact, a total summary of the report is as follows: U.S. March 1 corn stocks near 7,401 million bushels (mb) vs. 7,470 expected and 7,758 last year. U.S. March 1 soybean stocks near 1,685 mb vs. 1,742 expected and 1,932 last year. U.S. March 1 wheat stocks near 946 mb vs. 934 expected and 1,029 last year. Estimated U.S. 2023 corn acres near 91.99 vs. 90.88 expected and 91.0 forum, and 88.58 last year. Estimated U.S. 2023 soybean acres near 87.50 vs. 88.42 expected and 87.5 forum, and 87.45 last year. Estimated U.S. 2023 all wheat acres near 49.85 vs. 48.85 expected and 49.5 forum, and 45.73 last year. Estimated U.S. 2023 cotton acres near 11.25 vs. 11.21 expected and 10.9 forum, and 13.76 last year.
Friday afternoon, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders information. Recently, the managed-money funds have built a net short position. However, with the recent cotton rally, it will be interesting to see where they now stand.
From this week's export-sales report we note, cumulative sales have reached 11.460 million bales below the 14.20 million of last year. That is the lowest level since 2015-16. Sales have reached 101.9% of the USDA forecast for the marketing year versus a five-year average of 98.9%. The largest buyer this week was China at 85,021 bales, followed by Vietnam at 78,248 million bales.
The Dow Jones received a slight boost Friday after the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed a less-than-expected increase in prices. The Personal Consumption Index (excludes energy and food), rose 0.3% in February. That was less than the 0.4% expected by economists. For the quarter, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are up 5.5% and 14.8%, while the Dow is down slightly.
Friday, May 2023 finished at 82.78 cents, down 0.72 cent July settled at 83.10 cents, down 0.77 cent and December 2023, ended at 83.42 cents, 0.46 cent lower; estimated volume was 39,569 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
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Source: qualitygin.com