Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market finished higher Monday, as traders witnessed a small measure of early end-of-month squaring. In addition, next week is Golden Week in China, thus with the possibility of sparse Asian participation, traders were covering their needs now.
Spot May cotton entered its notice period Monday. There were no delivered contracts reported. May cotton's delivery period runs through its expiration on May 8.
This afternoon at 4 p.m. EDT USDA will update the planting progress of the 2023 crop. Last week saw the nation's cotton crop at 8% planted.
West Texas weather forecasts appear to be turning wetter. The latest 6- to 10- and 8- to 14-day outlooks suggest above-average chances of rain for the region. Last year, that region suffered a generational drought.
Investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve's May meeting, which happens next week. The central bank will supposedly increase interest rates by one-quarter point. However, if subsequent reports, such as the CPI and PPI, continue to underscore inflation, there may be additional action.
The latest 6- to 10- and 8- to 14-day outlooks suggest above average chances of rain for much of the Cotton Belt. West Texas did suffer something of a generational drought in 2022, but thus far weather conditions have been non-adversarial
Tuesday the Confidence Consumer Board will issue its monthly Consumer Confidence survey. This report reflects how optimistic (or pessimistic) consumers are about the state of the economy, based on how people save and how they spend their money. The more they spend, the more confident they are about the direction and state of the economy. If people save more, though, it generally means they aren't feeling as optimistic. The cutoff period for April's survey was March 20, about 10 days prior to U.S. bank failures.
Monday, May 2023 finished at 78.98 cents, up .57 cent; July settled at 80.69 cents, up .54 cents; December 2023 closed at 81.28 cents, up .90 cent. Monday's estimated volume was 24,275 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
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