Traders awaited the U.S. weekly export sales-shipments report. Global cotton exports expected to rise for all major players except for the United States.
Cotton futures closed mixed for a second straight session Wednesday, with 2017-18 marketing year contracts finishing unchanged to down 23 points and deferred deliveries settling up nine to 20 points.
Spot December slipped the most, closing at 69.31 cents, around the lower quarter of its narrow 73-point range from up 36 points at 69.90 to down 42 points at 69.12 cents. It traded within the prior-session range and closed on a modest loss a second day after Monday’s explosive rally.
March eased seven ticks to close at 69.06 cents, trading within a 55-point range between 68.89 and 69.44 cents. Among the deferred contracts December 2018 edged up 15 points to 69.45 cents.
Volume slowed to an estimated 21,120 lots from 35,190 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 15,180 or 43%, EFS 1,120 lots and EFP 100 lots. Options volume declined to 3,770 lots (2,086 calls and 1,684 puts) from 8,464 lots (3,450 calls and 5,014 puts).
Traders awaited the U.S. export sales report for the week ended Oct. 19, scheduled for release by USDA at 7:30 a.m. CDT on Thursday. Upland sales the prior week topped expectations at a healthy 253,200 running bales, while upland shipments slowed to a marketing year low to 86,100 RB.
Net upland sales the last four reporting weeks have averaged 190,700 RB and upland shipments have averaged 112,700 RB. Sales have been exceeding the pace needed to match the USDA export estimate, while shipments have been lagging.
Shipments are expected to improve as more cotton enters depleted market pipelines, though difficulties in acquiring cotton for fourth quarter delivery are reported to have resulted in some shipment offers being pushed into the new calendar year.
Despite a world cotton consumption increase projected by USDA at nearly 4% to 118 million bales this season, the largest growth rate since a similar gain in 2012-13, global cotton trade is forecast to rise by less than a million bales from a year earlier to 38.2 million.
Bangladesh and Vietnam are expected to import 7.25 million and 6.6 million bales, respectively, to support their expanding mill use, while China’s imports are forecast at 5.1 million bales, similar to 2016-17.
Global cotton exports are expected to rise for all the major players except for the United States, whose shipments are forecast to decline 3%.
While India’s exports were forecast to increase slightly (1%) to 4.6 million bales, shipments from Australia and Brazil were projected in USDA’s October supply-demand report to show stronger growth owing to their larger crops.
Australia’s exports were forecast at 4.1 million bales, up about 400,000 bales from last season, and Brazil’s at nearly 3.7 million bales, approximately 900,000 bales more than in 2016-17.
India, the world’s largest cotton producer, injected a new element into the global cotton trade picture this week when it unexpectedly raised the government-determined minimum support price.
Futures open interest expanded 1,871 lots to 233,822 on Tuesday, with December’s down 1,332 lots to 117,276 and March’s up 1,804 lots to 75,983. Certified stocks declined 296 bales to 2,047.
Source: Agfax