By Keith Brown DTN Cotton Correspondent
The cotton market was lower Wednesday as traders took profits ahead of Thursday’s weekly sales and exports and Friday’s planting intentions. To that end, the market was becoming overbought and certain technical indicators had been flashing a correction. Thus, on Wednesday, the market plunged over a cent, but by session’s end the futures had mitigated some of its heavy losses.
Technically, the market remains in a solid uptrend, at least in the short-term. For example, prior to Wednesday, the December market had closed higher for 11 of the past 13 trading session. Also, for eight sessions in a row, the market failed to back down to overlap a previous low.
However, the market remains in great need of fresh and friendly news if the ICE Futures are to bullishly re-assert itself. Of course, we are speaking of the aforementioned exports-sales data and Friday’s acres guesses. If those events come out the least bit bullish, the futures could have a good week by Friday’s close.
Of course, a huge outlier for the market are the U.S./china trade talks. An American delegation will commence new talks Thursday in Beijing. Obviously, it is hoped by both countries, and frankly the world, an agreement can be constructed and signed. Yet, many market observers say it will be late May or June before an agreement will be done. In a bit of supreme irony, we are guessing June 8, which is the exact one year anniversary of the first tariffs implemented by the Trump Administration, will be the time of an agreement.
For Wednesday, May cotton closed at 76.95 cents, down 0.94 cent, July was 77.92 cents, off 0.86 cent and December finished at 75.50 cents, down 0.47 cent. Wednesday’s estimated volume was 33,300 contracts traded.