Cotton futures finished mixed Thursday, with current-crop deliveries ending flat to fractionally lower after hitting new contract highs and new-crop contracts settling mostly slightly higher.
March slipped 15 points to close at 78.80 cents, in the lower quarter of its 85-point range from down 35 points at 78.60 to up 50 points at 79.45 cents. It posted the session low in the early going overnight, touched the high before midmorning and drifted lower in slow trading.
May regained a slight premium over March, settling off four points at 78.88 cents, in the lower half of its 80-point range from 78.59 to 79.39 cents, and July closed unchanged at 79.05 cents, trading within a 78-point span from 78.72 to 79.50 cents.
The other contracts settled down 25 to up 22 points, with December 2018 up the most on a new contract high at 74.25 cents.
Volume slipped to an estimated 19,566 lots from 27,379 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 8,153 lots or 30% and EFS 80 lots. Options volume dipped to 9,719 lots (4,550 calls and 5,169 puts) from 10,524 lots (7,315 calls and 3,209 puts).
Traders awaited USDA’s delayed U.S weekly export sales-shipments report, scheduled for release at 7:30 a.m. CST on Friday. Strong demand has prompted speculation that USDA may raise its export estimate, though shipments have continued to lag the pace needed to reach the projection.
Net upland sales the last reporting week ended Dec. 14 topped expectations by a wide margin at 326,500 bales and lifted all-cotton commitments for 2017-18 to nearly 76% of the USDA export projection, up from the five-year average for this time of year of about 64%.
Prices during that week ranged from 72.76 to 75.56 cents, basis spot March, and ranged during the next reporting week from 74.93 to what was then a new contract high at 78.07 cents.
Steep discounts have helped cotton with low micronaire, a measure of fiber fineness or maturity, to find a home, but many producers haven’t seen many benefits from the futures rally.
Upland shipments, hampered in part by warehouse backlogs, slowed to 148,200 RB during the last reporting week and stand at 20% of the USDA forecast. Shippers have been paying premiums for cotton in warehouses that can make prompt shipments.
Shipments of upland for the four-week period ended Dec. 14 have averaged 168,400 RB weekly. The pace is expected to quicken as warehouse congestion eases and various quality issues are sorted out.
The USDA earlier this month raised its export forecast 300,000 statistical bales to 14.8 million, close to last season’s 14.92 million and third largest on record. The record high is 17.67 million bales in 2005-06.
Increased production of high quality cotton in Brazil and Australia has been expected by USDA to boost exports from those countries, while exports from India and Uzbekistan are forecast to decline again.
Futures open interest expanded 3,962 lots to 278,565 on Wednesday, with March’s up 1,848 lots to 175,844 and May’s up 1,542 lots to 51,533. Certified stocks were unchanged at 47,601 bales.
Source: Agfax