By Keith Brown DTN, Contributing Cotton Analyst
Old crop July ignored essentially bearish supply and demand numbers to close sharply higher. USDA issued new crop projections suggesting a 19.70 million-bale crop, with a possible carryout of 7.70 million up from last season’s 6.5 million.
Additionally, USDA forecasts world carryout at 99.43 million, up from last month’s 91.26 million bales. However, the report’s bearish slant was not lost on the new crop, as December finished a mere 0.27-cent higher.
Thursday’s weekly export sales will play a pivotal role for the cotton market. Thus, if hefty Chinese buying is seen, it may be game on, but if the converse happens, weak or negative sales, then the market could get its lights turned off.
Just two days into this second week of calendar May, the July cotton is up 2.20 cents from last Friday and up about 0.97 cent since May 1. Much of the buying is attributable to short-covering by managed money funds.
Tuesday, July cotton closed at 58.34 cents, up 1.71 cents, December settled at 57.90 cents, up 0.27 cent and March finished at 58.60 cents, up 0.28 cent. Estimated volume was 35,893 contracts.