By Keith Brown DTN Cotton Contributing Analyst
Spot December Cotton made a new seasonal low Tuesday, negating its 75.37 cent low tick of October 1. Selling pressure emerged as traders were bearishly spooked by another horrific down day for the Dow Jones, a big rally in the U.S. Dollar and squaring preparations for December’s impending delivery of this coming Monday.
To the latter, Wednesday is the last full session day for market participants to exit, with Friday’s shortened session as the last drop-dead day for traders to exit. Interestingly, although Spot December did indeed post a new seasonal low, both the March and July Futures did not. Their resistance is something of a positive divergence, at least for the moment.
In other news, several U.S. retailers posted poor earnings, which helped push cotton to new lows. Target stores missed its earnings projections, and cotton traders saw that as a huge loss in sales of sheets, towels and other textiles.
Technically, Tuesday’s lower close affirms the sharp downward slope of the charts. However, Thanksgiving week has long been associated as the prime time to see the cotton market to make its final season low. Thus, this week’s plunge is nothing out of the ordinary.
A growing concern in the trade is the inordinate amounts of poorer grading cotton. In a world of which high-grades are king, there have been instances where the less desirable grades are being penalized as much as a 10.00 cents. Of course, for several areas, harvesting efforts are being slowed or halted by too much rain. This situation may result in both more quantity reduction and/or additional quality issues.
December cotton settled 75.27 cents, down 0.61 cent, March was 77.43 cents, off 0.62 cent, and December 2019 was 76.63 cents, down 0.55 cent. Tuesday’s estimated volume was 41,100 contracts traded.