By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market virtually regained its Friday losses Monday as traders and speculators bullishly waded back in the market, anticipating positive numbers from USDA. At noon on Tuesday, the government will update the industry on its latest supply-demand news. The market is looking for a smaller 2020 crop, an increase in exports and a lower carryout.
A big driver for the market is the trend itself. Any “half-wit” can hold a chart out at arm’s length and quickly recognize the path of the trading is upward. To that end, speculators have been carrying a net-long position for months.
Of course, there is an underlying economic theme suggesting “all things commodities will rise” in the coming years. That notion is built on the hope that curse COVID-19 will eventually be lifted, resulting in a new strong demand consumption surge. The stock and commodities markets are hoping U.S. lawmakers will soon pass a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 aid package. On Friday, the U.S. Congress approved a budget plan that would allow the $1.9 trillion relief bill to fast-track through the legislative process.
Monday, March cotton closed at 84.28 cents, up 1.54 cents, July settled at 86.43 cents, plus 1.59 cents, and December cotton ended at 82.12 cents, off 1.48 cents. Monday’s estimated volume was 78,170 contracts.