By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market closed lower Friday after a pretty much stellar week. Coming into Friday morning, December cotton was up 1.50 cents on the week and 6.00 cents on the month, so it was primed for some traders to take money off the table. Speculators have been net long a hefty position for some time, to which they seemingly augment each week. The next update to see how they stand will be Friday afternoon’s CFTC’s Commitment of Traders positions.
Next Monday, USDA will offer up its crop progress numbers concerning conditions and harvesting efforts. We think once the crop becomes 50%-plus gathered, the government will halt its condition reporting. Since the harvest was 34% last week, we suspect that would fall about Nov. 2.
The U.S. Dollar was down Friday and for the week. The on-again-off-again stimulus talks have currency traders going around in circles. Essentially, more stimulus means a further dilution of the dollar’s buying power, hence the U.S. Dollar Index submerges. Also, as the national polls indicate a Biden victory, there is further weakening of the greenback. Of course, a weaker dollar is friendly for exportable U.S. agricultural commodities, while too weak of a dollar can potentially harm domestic consumers.
For Friday, December cotton closed at 71.29 cents, down 0.65 cent, March settled at 71.87 cents, down 0.64 cent and December 2021 finished at 70.19 cents, down 0.88 cent. Estimated volume was 25,430 contracts.