By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market ended the month of November on a negative note, as the March contract was down roughly 1.00 cent on the day. However, for the month, March cotton was up about 2.45 cents. Of course, Tuesday starts a new trading month, the last of 2020, so traders will be watching the initial buy/sell flow as to clues for future price direction.
Monday afternoon, USDA will be reporting on the harvest progress for the 2020 crop. Last week the crop was shown to be about at 77% gathered, which was pretty much in line with its 10-year average. Last week, there was some rain which fell across the Delta and the Southeast, which probably slowed the gathering pace. Still, if the crop is greater than 80% harvested, traders will begin to turn their attention more towards weekly exports-sales, and next week’s supply-demand report. To the latter, last month, the government surprisingly increased the 2020 crop by some 400,000 bales to 17.40 million bales. Yet many traders believe the crop is under the 17.0 million bales mark.
The CFTC’s trade data has been delayed. This report, normally out on Friday, delineates the positions of the various trading entities who participate in the market’s ultimate act of “price discovery.” Of late, the managed-money speculators have been decidedly net long.
Monday, March cotton closed at 72.15 cents, down 1.09 cents, July 2021 settled at 73.75 cents, down 0.96 cent and December 2021 ended at 70.75 cents, down 0.69 cent. Estimated volume was 24,005 contracts.