By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
After experiencing a huge rally on Thursday, the market then suffered big-time Friday profit-taking. Yet, the overall net change for the market was positive. In fact, for the week, March cotton was up 2.10 cents and for the year 4.62 cents. Volume has been massive, with the market posting a record volume (we think) of 103,000 plus on Thursday, versus Friday’s 91,000 or so contracts traded.
Friday afternoon, the CFTC will report on its spec-hedge structure. As of the last period, speculators had actually reduced their net long holdings, Of course today’s data will be as of this past Tuesday’s close.
Into next week, the trade will see a USDA supply/demand update on Tuesday. Traders expect the report to show a cut to domestic production, an increase in exports and thus a reduction in domestic carryout. Of course, weekly export sales will follow on Thursday.
Also, next week, we understand a major cotton council will release its membership’s new crop acres survey. Some participants are suggesting a five to ten percent reduction is likely versus that of the 2020 season. The U.S. dollar sold off Friday as a 50/50 tie in the U.S. Senate was broken to allow the Democrats to pursue their extra-heavy COVID-19 relief package in the U.S. House.
Friday, March cotton closed at 82.74 cents, down 1.54 cents, July settled at 84.84 cents, down 1.37 cents and December cotton ended at 80.64 cents, down 0.43 cent; estimated volume was 91,004 contracts.
Source: Agfax