Executive Summary
Highlights from the June 2020 Cotton This Month include:
- Global consumption is expected to decline 11.3% in 2019/20
- If production rises 2% this season as projected, ending stock levels will swell to 21.75 million tonnes
- Global trade is forecast to fall to 8.34 million tonnes in 2019/20
Stocks to Reach Highest Level in Five Years as Consumption and Trade Suffer during Pandemic
It appears that the expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on this season are, unfortunately, developing the way everyone feared they would:
- Consumption is expected to be 23 million tonnes in 2019/20, down 11.3% from the prior year.
- Global trade is projected to decline 9.6% to 8.34 million tonnes.
- With production expected to increase by 2% to 26.2 million tonnes, stocks could swell to 21.75 million tonnes — the highest they’ve been in five years.
China, the world’s top consumer, is expected to fall 12% to 7.25 million tonnes. India is projected to suffer its own 12% slide to 4.75 million tonnes. Others feeling the pain include Pakistan (-7%), Turkey (-8%), Vietnam (-8%), Brazil (-11%) and Bangladesh (-25%).
Global trade is expected to fall to 8.34 million tonnes in 2019/20, a 9.6% decrease from the previous season. Recovery for the coming 2020/21 season is expected to be modest under the current IMF projections for economic recovery.
Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on 15 June 2020. The next Cotton This Month will be released on 1 July 2020.
Source: ICAC