Executive Summary
Highlights from the July 2021 Cotton This Month include:
- Global production is projected to recover in 2021/22, after recording the lowest levels in the last 4 seasons in 2020/21
- Global consumption gained 12.5% in 2020/21 and another gain is projected for next season
- Cotton trade is recovering after the slowdown in 2019/20, especially as the global economy improves
A Recovery Is Expected for Consumption and Trade in the 2021/22 Season
After one of the most traumatic and disruptive years in living memory, people are ready for some good news for a change — and the July 2021 Cotton This Month report provides that good news (or at least the expectation of it).
After a 7% decrease in 2020/21, production is projected to return to pre-pandemic levels next year. Even better, global consumption has recovered from 2019/20 to post a 12.5% increase to 25.59 million tonnes in 2020/21 and is projected to improve further to 25.8 million tonnes next season.
Lower production combined with higher demand will cause ending stocks to decline for the first time in four years to stand at 20.96 million tonnes — a level similar to what was recorded in 2015/16. Ending stocks are forecasted to decline further in 2021/22 to 20.77 million tonnes, as mill use is expected to exceed production
Cotton trade is recovering after the slowdown in 2019/20, especially as the global economy improves. Exports in 2020/21 have increased by 11.75% compared to 2019/20 and should remain at that level in 2021/22.
The Secretariat’s current price projection for the year-end 2021/22 average of the A index is 89 cents per pound this month.
Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on 15 July 2021. The next Cotton This Month will be released on 1 August 2021.