Executive Summary
Highlights from the October 2019 edition of ‘Cotton This Month’ include:
- Global production is projected to outpace consumption slightly in 2019/20
- East Asian countries will continue to lead the world in consumption
- Several major consuming countries will post consumption gains, but mostly 2% or less
- High stocks and low demand for exports have driven prices to their lowest levels since 2016
Modest Growth in Consumption Keeps 2019/20 Demand Expectations Low
While global consumption in the coming season is expected to increase, the gains will be minimal, and production (26.8 million tonnes) is expected to slightly outpace consumption (26.5 million tonnes) in 2019/20.
The East Asia region will continue to lead the world in consumption, but growth likely will be modest, and China’s 2018/19 consumption total of 8.25 million tonnes is expected to remain unchanged in the coming season.
Several major consuming countries should see gains — including India, Bangladesh and Vietnam — but overall growth is slowing, and none of those countries is likely to see gains of 2% or more, with the exception of Indonesia (projected 4% growth over 2018/19).
With plentiful supplies and weak export demand, the price on the Cotlook A Index has dropped to its lowest point since 2016.
Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next ‘Cotton Update’ will be provided on 15 October 2019. The next ‘Cotton This Month’ will be released on 1 November 2019.
Please feel free to contact the author, Ms. Lihan Wei, with questions.
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About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information, please visit www.icac.org.