Executive Summary
Highlights from the November 2021 Cotton This Month include:
- World production is poised to show a 6% year-over-year increase vs 2020/21
- The surge is being led by three of the world's top five producers: USA, Brazil and Pakistan
- West Africa is poised to post an amazing 48% increase vs the prior season
Production Is Poised for Full Recovery with a 6% Increase Expected for 2021/22
To say the 202/21 season was disappointing for the cotton industry is a major understatement, given the mayhem and confusion that occurred when the Covid-19 virus ground the global supply chain to a halt.
While it would be naïve to say things are back to normal — only about 3% of people in less-developed countries have been vaccinated, far behind those in richer countries — there are some signs that the recovery is in full swing.
Three of the world’s top five producers (Brazil, Pakistan and the USA) are showing increases in production vs 2020/21 and while that won’t quite bring things back to ‘normal’, it is a sign that the industry’s recovery is still in full swing. Current projections show an increase of 6% in global production in 2021/22 vs the prior season.
Nowhere is that more evident than in West Africa, where all countries are reporting production increases, with the region being up nearly 48% vs the 2020/21 season.
The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2021/22 ranges from 87 cents to 126 cents, with a midpoint at 104.26 cents per pound.
Source: ICAC