Executive Summary
Highlights from the December 2022 Cotton This Month include:
- The 2022/23 global cotton crop has already suffered major losses due to droughts, flooding and pest infestations
- Despite those issues, consumption is still expected to be lower than production by more than 1.2 million tonnes, at 23 million and 24.2 million tonnes, respectively
- The Secretariat’s current price forecast ranges from 97.9 cents to 151.5 cents, with a midpoint at 115 cents per pound
Production to Outpace Consumption Despite Extreme Weather Events and Pest Infestations
It’s safe to say the 2022/23 season has gotten off to a difficult start for the cotton industry. On the production side, both the USA and Pakistan were devastated by drought and flooding, respectively, while West Africa faced a severe infestation of jassids. All caused severe damage to the crops.
On the consumption side, fears of a recession still have governments scrambling to control inflation, while the decline in employment in the retail, transportation and warehousing sectors are cause for concern, especially as so many other industries are hiring again.
Currently, the ICAC projects global production at 24.27 million tonnes and consumption at 23 million tonnes.
The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2022/23 ranges from 97.9 cents to 151.5 cents, with a midpoint at 115 cents per pound.