Executive Summary
Highlights from the June 2021 Cotton This Month about the 2021/22 season include:
- Global production is expected to increase by 5.5%
- Global consumption is expected to increase by 2%
- Global trade is expected to increase by 2%
- Global ending stocks are expected to increase as stocks-to-use ratio declines
Production, Consumption and Trade Are All Expected to Make Gains in 2021/22
Decreases in Brazil, India and the USA have caused a reduction in the 2020/21 global production estimate but cotton production — along with consumption and trade — are all expected to increase in 2021/22:
- Production is expected to increase by 5% to 25.5 million tonnes with increases in planted area in the United States and West Africa.
- Consumption is expected to increase by 2% to 25.3 million tonnes as the global economy continues to recover.
- Trade is expected to increase by 2% to 10 million tonnes with import increases expected in all major consuming countries.
Global ending stocks are also expected to increase to 22 million tonnes as the stocks-to-use ratio declines to 0.87, although China’s stock is expected to decrease as the rest of the world’s expands slightly.
In terms of prices, The Secretariat’s current projection for the year-end 2019/20 average of the A Index has been revised to 81.9 cents per pound this month. The price projection for the year-end 2020/21 average of the A Index is 87.1 cents per pound this month.