Executive Summary
The August 2023 edition of Cotton This Month:
- Shows that initial projections for production, consumption and trade are improvements over the prior season
- However, there are already reasons for concern in three major producing countries
- Although consumption projections currently show an increase over 2022/23, it's likely to be revised downward, which will drag down trade numbers as well
Will Early-Season Optimism Be Sustained?
As the 2023/24 season kicks off today, things are looking pretty good! The ICAC's current projections for global production, consumption and trade all reflect improvements over the prior season.
But there are some concerning dark clouds on the horizon and those numbers are unlikely to be maintained, for a host of reasons:
- Three of the world's top producers — China, India and the USA — are unlikely to hit their desired numbers, and the other two — Brazil and Pakistan — could struggle as well.
- Although global economic concerns like inflation have moderated significantly thanks to governments' efforts, consumer confidence remains low and that could drag down demand for discretionary goods.
- Lower demand means lower mill use, which means a decrease in trade.
