The world has entered a cyclone that is growing by the day. War and unrest follow one another at a frantic pace, while the reservoir of new conflicts seems inexhaustible. El Nino is amplifying the chaos caused by global warming and the fears for the future that it is raising.
Socially, the fire is smouldering, while stock market prices are flying from record to record.
Political instability has become a viaticum. How long will democracies withstand the populist onslaught before they give up the ghost?
Against all the odds, the economic dikes are holding. Even Jerome Powell, Chairman of the FED, is no longer hiding his concern about the wall of US debt, which he deems "unsustainable".
Against this backdrop, the commodities market looks like a haven of peace!
Yet here too, turbulence is the order of the day. The example of cotton is instructive: demand is at half-mast while the ICE in New York continues to strengthen. To see why, just look at the financial market, which is up by almost 3.50 USC/Lb, while the Cotlook index, which is supposed to represent the physical market, is only up by 0.40 USC/Lb.
That says it all, or almost: the price of physical cotton is caught between very high futures prices and spinning mills that cannot bring themselves to sell their yarns at a loss. For weeks now, we have been wondering how long this anomaly will persist. Basis are under pressure, but the prospect of soaring freight rates is keeping prices up.
Demand is undeniably picking up on all the traditional markets, at very contained prices, but for how long?
Once the elections are over in India, won't the government let the law of the market take over and drive prices down sharply?
How long will the spinning mills in Bangladesh be able to continue their "cavalry"?
The market is currently on a drip-feed of American cotton exports, but the harvest is small and soon all eyes will be on the new crop. If we compare cotton prices with those of cereals, we can quickly imagine the interest shown by producers in white gold, which could quickly turn to lead by weighing down prices.
This week's WASDE will be closely watched, as we are in the run-up to the March 2024 liquidation. Will there be enough fuel to allow the market to wait for 90USC/Lb before plunging?
The superb CAF Africa Cup of Nations in Côte d'Ivoire, where everything is still wide open, teaches us that nothing is ever finished, nothing is ever certain before the final whistle... so let's hope!
Source: Mambo