Whatever happens, 2022 will obviously go down in history as a year of transition.
The death of the Queen of England, Elizabeth II, after more than 70 years of reign, deprives us of a guardian figure, guarantor of a great democracy that experienced the horrors of the Second World War. In the rest of the world, we can only note the rise of extremes and nationalism which are gradually taking power in a democratic manner and reminding us of the worst hours of our common past.
On the war front, who can believe in a victory of David against Goliath? Every kilometre that is regained brings us closer to an epilogue that could be far more dramatic.
On the economic front, inflation is stalling thanks to the (temporary?) drop in crude oil prices and massive state intervention to support purchasing power. The ECB, cornered by the aggressiveness of the FED, was forced to massively increase its key rates while allowing the Euro to return slightly above parity. But the specter of recession is still very present.
The persistent fear of a massive recession is also weighing on our market. It is difficult to quantify the reduction in consumption. At this stage we believe that production and consumption could balance out at around 115 million bales.
Poor weather conditions, which are expected to worsen from year to year, have taken their toll on yields. But the hyperinflation that is affecting inputs should also weigh dangerously on the next campaign; there is no point in looking for an answer to the current problem in previous cycles. Not only do needs change, but also the marginal cost of each crop.
There is little chance that non-food crops will increase in area or yield. We now have to reckon with fertilisers whose prices have risen by 400% and a world population that is expected to continue growing until 2050.
This week will be marked by two important elements:
- The return of the USDA's weekly export release
- The September WASDE released tonight by the USDA
The futures market should continue to see violent movements in both directions. Great volatility inherent in the current great uncertainties.
Source: Mambo