2021 is shaping up to be a potentially auspicious year for the cotton market:
- It is expected that the production forecasts from The U.S. and India will continue to be revised downwards. Consumption could be higher than production if the carryover stock (very high due to first confinement) and consumption of manufactured goods (very low due to the global economic slowdown) do not change this picture.
- The weakening of the dollar against all currencies favors commodities traded in this currency.
- The international boycott of textiles produced using cotton from Xinjiang, which is developing across the world, encourages China to continue its imports. The only valid question will be to know what will become of the nearly 5 million tons produced in this province, bearing in mind that the domestic market will not be able to absorb the quantities not exported.
- The American political situation should quickly stabilise and take us back to a more normal cotton market where fundamentals drive pricing on NYF.
- …
Without believing ourselves to be the "pythia" of the cotton market, there is a strong chance that after a slight technical downturn on ICE, the progression will continue to reach new heights. All the elements are now in place for a firm market for the first quarter of 2021
Source: Mambo