The word of the week is undoubtedly 'sweetness', not to mention wars, latent conflicts, the rantings of one side or the other, or the prevailing international insecurity. The performance of the commodities markets for sugar, cocoa and cotton is taking us to new heights, as if the earth needed sweetness in a world of thick brutes.
Even if the fertility rate follows a curve that is inversely proportional to voluntary abstinence, let's face it, this has nothing to do with it.
The approach of Valentine's Day does nothing to change the equation: we are closer to El Nino than to Cupid!
All the indicators on the financial markets are overheating for cotton, despite the polar cold that demand is experiencing. The market has gone into overdrive:
- - The volumes traded daily on the ICE are simply gigantic.
- - Volatility is very high, making the market highly uncertain.
- - Investment funds have bought into the market on a massive scale and are likely to continue to do so.
- - ...
But the market, which is currently 'overbought', is likely to take a breather at the start of this week, with the Asian markets closing to welcome the Year of the Dragon, which could calm some of the ardour.
Fundamentally, however, there is nothing to explain such a surge:
- - The US crop has been reduced and largely sold off, yet there will be no shortage of cotton thanks to reduced consumption and the massive arrival of cottons from the southern hemisphere, led by Brazil and Australia.
- - The Indian harvest should be enough to bridge the gap between the two hemispheres. In this respect, it is interesting to note the major purchases made recently by the Indian cotton trade. After the bitter failures of previous years, the squeeze could work this time.
The rise on the physical markets, meanwhile, is having trouble keeping up, with the "basis" shrinking like a stone without attracting buyers for the time being.
The rise in prices will have a perverse effect, favouring areas planted to cotton at the expense of cereals, which are less encouraging this season. The mechanical effect of a high "acraage" would be to push prices down unless we believe in a massive return in demand, which is clearly not on the agenda.
In the meantime, we can always console ourselves by eating chocolate and congratulating the Elephants and Côte d'Ivoire on organising and winning the 2024 African Cup of Nations.
Source: Mambo