The biggest surprise at the ICA conference in Las Vegas last week was the announcement that inflation in the US has stabilized. While this good news is not to be dismissed as a halt to the FED's aggressive rate hike, it does reflect the disconnect with the stratospheric cost of living experienced by all foreign visitors and contrasts with the number of homeless people on the streets.
The foreign exchange market reacted immediately by weakening the dollar against all currencies. A return to the 1.12 euro-dollar level is still quite possible, if not desirable, before the end of the year.
It is interesting to note that all the companies that kept the stock markets afloat during the COVID crisis are now in a state of collapse and are sinking into an existential crisis; Twitter and Meta are collapsing under the impetus of overly radical changes. NFTs are moribund as are crypto-currencies, which are likely to have been dealt the final blow with one of the largest FTX operators being placed under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
The Ukrainian flag is once again flying on the pediments of public establishments in Kherson, but how far will the coalition around NATO support Ukraine to let the reconquest take place? A further retreat of Russian troops in the current chaos could have dramatic consequences, apart from a negotiated peace agreement, as the Russian margin of maneuver is now so tenuous.
The WASDE published last week demonstrated the mistrust of operators towards the data published by the USDA. On the producer side, the US figures are seen as overestimated. Many believe that the crop should be below 13 million bales. On the consumption side, a majority consider that the recession that is taking hold on all continents is not sufficiently taken into account. As a result, the impact of these publications is now negligible, except for certain funds that have epidermal reactions to the release of the figures.
Technically, the situation is not neutral:
- Prices took advantage of the December 2022 sell-off to rebound from the lows to levels close to 90 Usc/Lb but will the March 2023 maturity meet with as much excitement?
- In an upward rally of nearly 20 Usc/lb the open position changed little... Could this be a sign of sufficient strength for the market to stabilize on its highs after "flushing" some funds?
- A sharp fall followed by a rise must be followed by another fall. It takes two "legs" to walk according to some wise technical analysts.
Currently the market is weighed down by a lack of demand and a strong dollar, but selling the ICE remains risky as the situation is so tense.
The Indian subcontinent is still suffering from a lack of manufacturing orders.
Turkey is suffering the full force of the European recession and is weighing on Greek crop prices. Indeed, the first outlet for this cotton is neighboring Turkey, which benefits from very low approach costs. In the current context Turkey is looking to export its own crop. It is very likely that the bases on cotton produced in this area will collapse.
However, one must bear in mind the lack of attractiveness of cotton compared to cereals in particular. Even at prices above 90 Usc/lb, the projected area planted will undoubtedly remain lower than that of the current harvest and will help maintain reasonably high price levels.
8 billion human beings who will have to be fed, who will live longer while protecting the planet, this is the challenge that awaits us. In such a context of environmental protection, the extensive use of synthetic fibers derived from petroleum as a replacement for cotton does not appear to be a viable alternative, as the pollution it generates is so damaging
Source: Mambo