Apnea has become the most widespread sport, unfortunately more in its "Abyss" version than in that of the "big blue".
It's at the edge of an abyss that the world dances, and we can only hold our breath in anticipation of a blast that could take us to the world of silence.
The atmosphere has become unbreathable:
- - The war in Ukraine has seen the counter-offensive come up against an impenetrable Russian block, at the cost of countless deaths on both sides. The vote on the new Russian budget showed that the country was planning a war that would last for a long time yet.
- - October 7, 2023 is a new "September 11", a new push to get countries to see the world solely in terms of religious fundamentalism, making the task of multi-faith countries ever more difficult. The American reaction only resulted in a flight from Kabul, leaving the country in the hands of the Taliban. Today, everyone is holding their breath, hoping to hold back the "sword of vengeance". But is this possible or even desirable? The State of Israel is staking its survival on that of 14 million souls spread over 5 continents. But all sides are being held hostage, wherever they may be, with the 230 Israelis and the two million Gazans in the hands of Hamas.
- - Part of the Chinese military fleet is in the area, Russian bases in the region are on alert, and American aircraft carriers are also deployed, having just issued a clear warning to Iran.
On the economic front, the situation is scarcely more enthusiastic, except to welcome the ECB's status quo in not raising rates, thus allowing the spread with the dollar to widen. Indeed, the next FED meeting is likely to see another rate hike.
After three irrespirable weeks, and a number of defeated Republican candidates, there is a new speaker in the US House of Representatives who should allow the world's largest democracy to breathe again. But there's no doubt that this long tug-of-war within the Republican heartland will leave its mark even beyond the borders of the USA.
Our market is hardly more breathable, as the situation remains stagnant despite demand that continues to run out of steam.
El Nino continues to wreak havoc in the southern hemisphere.
But it is the rumors of massive purchases of American cotton that are sustaining our market. Major sales have been announced in China and Pakistan, but this has not yet been confirmed in the USDA's weekly statistics.
On the ICE, the Carry has settled in for this season, as if the US harvest were going to remain in the warehouses for many months. At the same time, the global open position is shrinking, making the market more prone to jolts.
The freight market is back in the news. All the world's largest shipowners are European and, at the request of the European Union, will have to cease their tariff agreements. A new concentration in this market is therefore highly likely, to the detriment of the "weakest" in an industry where investment needs are colossal, and where global warming means that fleets must be rapidly modernized. The immoderate rise in post-covid freight prices prompts us to remain vigilant, particularly with regard to sales bases for remote deliveries.
South Africa's narrow and lacklustre victory also deprived us of a breath of fresh air in these anxious times.
Source: Mambo