The fashion trend of 2022/23 is confirmed, it is the "brown shirt" Europe, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, is returning to its passions of the 1930s which led it to the brink of the precipice of humanity. Milan Fashion Week is going to be very dark this week.
Far from being anecdotal, the radicalization underway could change the face of the war in Ukraine. Direct support for Russia's position could now see the light of day. But the worst-case scenario would be the implosion of a Europe, corseted by its institutions, which can only decide by unanimity of its members in almost all areas.
Meanwhile, the head of the FED, while raising US interest rates once again, has sent shivers down the spine of the markets by announcing further hikes to bring inflation back to 2%. The real question is whether this objective makes sense in the current context: the rise in prices will only be curbed by the return of supply and not by controlling demand. It is likely that a halt to the fighting would bring inflation down to much more bearable levels. In this context, a number of countries have decided to support demand through direct aid to consumers. The main thing for the moment is to hold on and maintain employment.
But it is worth remembering that the war has enabled the leading gas producer, the United States, to become the leading exporter to Europe, which had never before consumed gas from this origin. The ecological impact of this gas miraculously takes a back seat.
The greenback, stimulated by this continuous rise in interest rates, is now soaring against all currencies, especially the pound sterling and the yen, which are in great difficulty. But this rise in interest rates has perverse effects by making it increasingly difficult for developing countries to repay their debts.
Cotton is also suffering from the current macro-economic situation. Demand has dried up and the fundamentals are at best 'damage control':
- Weather conditions have affected all continents and reduced production.
- Input prices have limited applications and reduced yields.
- Rising cereal prices and the continuation of the war will help focus the new harvest on food crops at the expense of cash crops such as cotton.
But on the other hand, the textile industry will inexorably see its share in the household budget decrease.
The other uncertainty lies in freight prices, which are expected to fall. However, it is difficult to imagine shipping companies depriving themselves of such a windfall. It is reasonable to think that freight rates will fall while at the same time there will be a massive increase in the ancillary charges levied by the "giants of the seas".
Our market is likely to continue to fluctuate for a few more weeks as the world's good and bad news unfolds.
Source: Mambo