All markets are reacting to the death of A. Khamenei, without knowing where this will lead us. One thing is certain: D. Trump's empirium continues to grow. The UN no longer exists and only his ambitions matter. He refuses to mix with other world powers by refusing to participate in the G7. Can imperialism, isolationism, and democracy coexist? The potential midterm elections will tell us...
Against a backdrop of greenback stability, the cotton market is also beginning to pick up thanks to certain indicators that have become significant:
- The decline in production due to climate disruption and the likelihood of another El Niño episode this season.
- The repurchase of bearish speculative positions, the impact of which has been smoothed out by the willingness of producers and other traders to arbitrage by taking advantage of the upturn.
- Doubts about the accuracy of Chinese cotton production, whose sudden increase continues to raise questions.
- Sustained purchases from the Indian subcontinent.
- A quiet and unsurprising liquidation of the March 26 contract on the ICE in New York.
US cotton export sales remain strong, but shipments are still below the levels needed to meet USDA estimates for this season.
It is difficult to predict what impact this new war will have on the global economy and therefore on consumption, but the adage that one should sell to the sound of cannon and buy to the sound of trumpet is likely to prove true once again. However, once the surprise effect has passed, we should remain reasonably positive about the future of our market.
Source: Mambo