It is against this backdrop that we are witnessing a dull start to the season, with all the ups and downs of the cotton market being quickly brought to a halt. The expiry of the December 2024 deadline on ICE has put the market under a cloud. As soon as the market falls, certified stocks increase and weigh on ICE prices.
At the moment, the equilibrium price is 70 USC/Lb and looks set to remain there for some time yet. The only fly in the ointment is the dollar, which continues to appreciate against all currencies, first and foremost the euro. While such a surge favors the price of African cotton sold in dollars equivalent to the euro, the situation is far more complex for the countries of the Indian sub-continent, which are struggling to maintain their dollar reserves.
The poor US export figures contrast with the insolent demand for Brazilian cotton this week.
For the time being, we will have to be content with this balance while we await Brazilian sowing figures, which could send prices to new lows or recover to around 85 USC/Lb.
Source: Mambo