Attaché Reports (GAIN)
Report Highlights:
The cotton production forecast for 2024/25 has been revised downward to 5.2 million bales, with the area unchanged at 2 million hectares.
Production and Area
The cotton production forecast for the 2024/25 season is revised to 5.2 million bales (480 lbs.) marking a 28 percent decline compared to production in 2023/24. This sharp drop is due to a 17 percent decline in area harvested and a 15 percent decline in yield. The production decline was particularly sharp in Punjab province. As noted in previous reports, cotton area was lower this year as farmers shifted to crops with the potential for greater returns, particularly rice and corn. The cotton crop was negatively impacted by frequent heatwaves, especially early in the season, and untimely rains, which delayed growth and led to late harvesting in some areas. South Punjab, traditionally the center of cotton cultivation, experienced a large decline in yields due to severe pest outbreaks.
In the first few months of the 2024/25 collection season, as much as 30 percent of cotton output delivered to ginners went unreported as operators throughout the supply chain sought to avoid taxes. In response, beginning in August, the government took steps to ensure that a higher percentage of cotton collected and ginned was officially reported. As a result, according to official reports, the pace of cotton delivered to ginners in October and early November increased. The current production estimate reflects Post’s estimate that 15 percent of cotton delivered to ginners remains unreported.
As of mid-November, ginners had received 3.48 million bales (480 lbs.) a 33 percent decrease compared to the same period last year. Out of this total, 1.88 million bales (480 lbs.) were received in Sindh and 1.6 million bales (480 lbs.) in Punjab. However, Punjab’s Crop Reporting Service, as of November 15, 2024, indicated that total production had reached 2.63 million bales (480 lbs.), which is 30 percent higher than the amount reported by ginners up to November 18, 2024.
To address the domestic shortfall, the government has been encouraging cotton cultivation in Baluchistan, where the climate is sometimes more favorable for cotton farming. Pest management is also viewed as more manageable in Baluchistan compared to traditional cotton-growing areas. Area dedicated to cotton farming during 2024/25 in Baluchistan increased 55 percent compared to 2023/24. Nonetheless, area planted was only around 120,000 million hectares, well short of the government’s target of 800,000 hectares. Despite the emphasis on increasing cotton output in the province, Baluchistan contributes less than 5 percent of Pakistan’s total cotton production.
The production estimate for 2023/24 is revised to 7.325 million bales (480lbs.) based on an updated estimated of the amount of unreported cotton ginned. Post assumes that 20 percent of total cotton production was not included in the official ginners’ reports.
Source: USDA-FAS