For the week ending Friday, February 17, ICE cotton futures slid to the lower end of their three month trading range (see chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). The most active May’23 contract settled Friday at 81.50 cents per pound, while the new crop Dec’23 settled at 82.25 cents. Chinese cotton prices were low-then-flat across the week, as was the A-Index of world prices.
Cotton-specific influences this week included a continued decent level of weekly U.S. export sales, while actual export shipments remained below the needed weekly average (which is seasonally normal). USDA’s weekly summary of the U.S. market continued to reflect a mix of inactive (Delta), moderate (Southeast) to active (Texas) spot physical trading, along with varying levels of reported demand.
ICE cotton futures open interest mostly declined across week, which along with mostly declining price settlements gave the appearance of long liquidation. Unfortunately, the most recent confirming snapshot of speculative positioning is several weeks old due to delays from CFTC.
Compared to ICE cotton futures, the pattern of CBOT corn, CBOT soybeans, and KC wheat was flatter, albeit in a slight downtrend. The U.S. dollar index showed a recovery this week, in apparent response to positive economic indicators and increased expectations of hawkish Federal Reserve policy.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.