John Robinson, Extension economist, cotton marketing, Texas AgriLife Extension
The U.S. cotton industry is an export-focused business. For this year’s crop, exports account for almost 88% of total use. This export orientation has been growing for decades and has been evolving alongside changes to the global textile industry.
The stacked bar chart shows a historical breakdown of imports of all U.S. cotton (i.e., Upland and Pima combined) and identifies the top exporters of U.S. cotton. This includes China, and then, alphabetically: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Vietnam, and the rest of the world combined.
The historical pattern highlights several things. First, Chinese imports of U.S. cotton have been trending lower. Also, there is a lot of variation in Chinese imports from year to year. This is partly due to China’s policy of storing large quantities of cotton and then substituting those supplies in place of imports. This happened between 2012 and 2015, and again between 2024 and 2025. The latter explains why China has not been in the global market in any large way recently.
The chart shows an expansion in non-China imports of U.S. cotton to substitute for declining Chinese imports. This represents an expansion of textile production in these other countries. However, this demand for U.S. cotton is not as policy driven as China’s. It is more market oriented and thus subject to downstream demand for textile products.
These non-Chinese demand sources are more exposed to macroeconomic risks. The most recent example of this is in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, as evident by a shrinkage in non-China imports during the 2023-24 marketing year.
The last two observations of non-Chinese imports of U.S. cotton reflect a recovery of demand. Hopefully this will continue.
For additional thoughts on these and other cotton marketing topics, please visit my weekly online newsletter at cottonmarketing.tamu.edu/.