The U.S. 2018/19 cotton supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month. The projected range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 69.0 to 71.0 cents per pound is reduced 2 cents, as the reported average price for January fell below previous expectations.
This month’s 2018/19 world cotton estimates show higher production and ending stocks, and slightly lower trade. Production is estimated up 350,000 bales in Brazil on higher area and 200,000 bales up in Pakistan based on arrivals at gins. Production is 100,000 bales lower in Australia due to weather.
World trade is forecast 140,000 bales lower with reductions for Brazil and Indonesia on the export and import sides based on activity to date. Ending stocks for 2018/19 are forecast 590,000 bales higher this month, at 76.1 million bales. This would be 5.1 million bales below their revised 2017/18 level.