In 2018/19 season, after damaged by the drought and hurricanes, U.S. cotton quality has declined compared to previous years. By Dec 27, US cotton inspection progress has reached 90%, and what about the quality? The article will analyze from the index of color, length and leaf.
Inspection progress:
According to USDA, by Jan 24, 2019, inspection volumes of US upland cotton have totaled 3.50 million tons, down 13.82% year on year, and accounting for 90.12% of the forecast output (3.88 million tons). Inspection volumes of Pima were 142.1kt, up 2.53% year on year, about 84.60% of forecast output (168kt). Therefore, the total inspection volumes approached 3.642 million tons, sharing about 89.9% of the forecast output (4.05 million tons).
For the inspection volumes, the data in 2018/19 season has been basically flat compared to the corresponding period of 2016/17 season, while was lower than that of 2017/18 season. For the inspection progress, it was slower in 2018/19 season compared to the same period in 2015/16 and 2016/17 season, but faster than that in 2017/18 season.
Color index:
By Dec 27 2018, the proportion of US cotton with Middling and above was 36.2%, down 34.6% year on year. In Florida, its proportion declined the most, down by 70.4% year on year, while that in Virginia climbed up the most, up by 16.1%.
When the inspection progress reached 30%, US cotton with Middling and above took a share of 30.6%, and now, when the progress was 90%, the share was 36.2%, showing that the quality of US cotton improved somewhat on color index.
Length index:
The average length of 2018/19 US cotton was 36.7mm, basically flat compared to the index in 2017/18 season. For the statistics in the states, the length of cotton in Virginia reduced most, down 2.2%, while that in New Mexico rose by 2.44%.
When the inspection progress reached 30%, the length was averaged at 36.1mm, and when the progress was 90%, the length has reached 36.7mm.
Leaf index:
By Dec 27, the proportion of US cotton with leaf index below grade-3 was 52.6%, down 17.9% year on year.
When the inspection progress reached 30%, the leaf index below grade-3 was averaged at 60.9%, and when the progress was 90%, the proportion declined to 52.6%, showing that the quality reduced somewhat on leaf grade. For the leaf index above grade-5, the proportion has decreased slightly from 0.8% to 0.5%.
Conclusion:
The difference between the quality of US cotton in 2018/19 and 2017/18 is still obvious. The decline of color index is particularly obvious and the content of leaf has increased, but the proportion of high leaf content has also decreased. The length index is basically flat. In addition, the quality of the US cotton in the early inspection is slightly lower than the quality of the US cotton in the later period.
