U.S. Cotton: Prices Rally on Monday Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting

Barchart: Cotton futures gained 110 to 247 points on Monday, led by the front months, as traders put risk back into the market ahead of this week's meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders; Treasury Secretary Bessent met Chinese counterparts over the weekend to prepare for the talks. Dec26 settled at 83.42 cents (+227 points), Oct26 at 79.85 cents and Mar27 at 86.08 cents. Crude oil fell about 4.5%, while the dollar index firmed. The Seam sold 2,496 bales on Friday at an average of 77.26 cents/lb, the Cotlook A Index dropped 205 points to 92.30 on September 18, and ICE certified stocks fell to 35,748 bales.
Source: Barchart

U.S. Cotton: Biggest Daily Gain Since August as Markets Welcome U.S.-China Thaw

Calcot (Cindy Walters): December's 227-point gain was its largest since August 27 and ended a run of six lower closes worth 707 points, lifting the contract back above its 100-day moving average. Most agricultural markets rallied on hopes of improved U.S.-China relations and possible Chinese purchases of U.S. farm goods, while the Nasdaq hit a record close; Xi arrives in Washington on Wednesday, with the state visit beginning Thursday and trade, tariffs, AI and rare earths on the agenda. China's ZCE futures were far less enthusiastic, edging up just 0.2%. Crude oil fell 4.5% on hopes of diplomatic progress in the Iran conflict and higher Saudi exports, though Strait of Hormuz traffic remains severely restricted. China's State Reserve held auctions on both Sunday and Monday ahead of the Mid-Autumn and Golden Week holidays, selling almost everything offered; of the roughly 1.65 million bales sold so far, 57% has been U.S. cotton, 23% Brazilian and 20% Xinjiang. Open interest rose for a fourth straight session to 382,296 contracts, the fourth-highest ever, as speculators have made few attempts to exit their positions despite the price slide.
Source: Calcot

Greece: Premium Fails to Recover Despite Exchange Pressure

Agronews (Giannis Papadogiannis): Cotton has shed about 10 cents from its early-September highs, a pullback analysts see as the natural result of an extended rally, driven by position liquidation and technical selling rather than fundamentals — the latest USDA report still pointed to tight supply, with lower U.S. production and ending stocks. In Greece, trading has picked up slightly with lower prices, though less than expected from buyers and spinners. Egyptian spinners have been slow to engage with the Greek crop because of competitive Brazilian offers, and the premium has narrowed to roughly 2 cents over December futures.
Source: Agronews

U.S. Cotton: Trump-Xi Talks Seen as the Week's Key Catalyst

PCCA: After a rough week in which December futures lost nearly 5 cents to settle at 81.15 cents and broke through several technical support levels, PCCA points to three headwinds: the Federal Reserve's first rate hike since July 2023, a stronger dollar, and weakness across the broader agricultural complex. The Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday is flagged as the most important event of the week, with agriculture expected to be part of the talks; any progress on Chinese farm purchases would be a welcome boost for cotton demand. PCCA notes that while some supportive factors remain in place, demand has not yet been strong enough to offset the recent selling pressure.
Source: PCCA

U.S. Cotton: What Does This Price Slide Mean?

Cotton Grower (Dr. Don Shurley): The run to 93 cents is over for now, with December futures down more than 10 cents from the peak; Shurley sees support around 82 cents, which could underpin a rebound, but further negative news could push prices down to 78–80 cents. He argues the slide is not consistent with fundamentals: USDA cut the 2026 U.S. crop by 410,000 bales in September on lower harvested area and yield, crop condition has fallen below "fair" beltwide for the first time, and Texas and Oklahoma are rated 49% and 55% poor/very poor. Exports have made a weak start, with weekly sales under 100,000 bales for four straight reports, while world use is projected at 122.9 million bales — rising, but not fast enough. On farm programs, 2025 ARC/PLC payments will be made in October, with a projected seed cotton PLC rate of 7.89 cents/lb, and landowners have until December 11 to choose ARC or PLC for 2026.
Source: Cotton Grower

U.S. Cotton: Crop Progress – Condition Keeps Slipping

USDA: As of September 20, 65% of the U.S. cotton crop had bolls opening, up from 57% the previous week and ahead of 59% a year ago and the 58% five-year average. Harvest reached 13%, versus 8% the previous week, 12% a year ago and an 11% average. Condition continued to deteriorate: 34% of the crop was rated good/excellent, down from 36% the previous week and 47% a year ago, while 35% was rated poor/very poor (18% a year ago).
Source: USDA NASS

Global: Cotton Buyers Face Higher Procurement Risk as 2026/27 Outlooks Diverge

Textalks: Mills are entering 2026/27 with unusually wide uncertainty over supply, as the main forecasts point in different directions. ICAC projects production of 26.2 million tonnes against consumption of 25.9 million, while USDA sees output of 117.3 million bales against mill use of 122.9 million — a 5.6-million-bale deficit — and ending stocks of 69.9 million bales, the lowest since 2011/12 if realised. ICAC's forecast range for the 2026/27 Cotlook A Index is 62–99 cents/lb, with a 78-cent midpoint. China's reserve auctions are routinely selling out, and Pakistan, with output projected at only 1.10 million tonnes, is becoming more import-dependent; Pakistani spot prices have risen from Rs18,300 to Rs19,300 per maund. The article argues that origin diversification, contract timing, inventory cover, quality requirements and currency exposure will be decisive for import-reliant spinners.
Source: Textalks

Brazil: Cotton Growers Poised to Expand as Global Supply Tightens

The AgriBiz: Brazilian growers, coming off a record harvest of 4.2–4.3 million tonnes, are set to plant more cotton in 2026/27, with Itaú BBA forecasting an 11% increase in area and StoneX about 5%. New York prices are up 8% since July, and margins in Mato Grosso — where second-crop cotton accounts for up to 95% of output — have improved to about 40% from 25–26% in April, though still well below the 70% seen in 2019/20–2020/21. Brazil exported a record 3.4 million tonnes in 2025, with China taking 23% of its shipments and Brazil supplying about half of China's imports; domestic use is around 700,000 tonnes a year. USDA has cut its global stocks forecast to 15.2 million tonnes from 16.4 million, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio to 56.8% from 62.2%, but El Niño remains a key weather risk for second-crop plantings.
Source: The AgriBiz

Pakistan: Experts Call for Faster Approval of Imported Cotton Varieties

Dawn: Researchers and seed-industry experts in Pakistan are urging a shorter approval process for imported cotton varieties, which currently takes about seven years across biosecurity screening, biosafety trials, company trials, national yield trials and final approval. They propose cutting it to 12–24 months by replacing seasonal screening with laboratory disease testing and running biosafety and yield trials in parallel, which could allow promising imported varieties and hybrids to reach farmers by 2028. Some 24 foreign varieties are being evaluated — 11 from China, 8 from Ethiopia and 5 from Greece — with the Chinese material considered most promising for its longer staple and heat tolerance.
Source: Dawn

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