U.S. Cotton: Futures Rise Despite a Larger USDA Crop

Barchart: Cotton futures closed 53 to 79 points higher on Friday, with Dec26 at 80.54 cents (+60 points), Mar27 at 83.59 (+56) and May27 at 85.30 (+56); December gained 166 points on the week. Crude oil and the dollar index were little changed. USDA's Crop Production report raised the U.S. yield by 14 lb/acre to 790 lb, adding about 240,000 bales to put the crop at 13.44 million bales, and the WASDE lifted U.S. ending stocks by 200,000 bales to 3.8 million. The NASS Cotton Ginnings report showed 487,900 running bales ginned in the second half of September, bringing the season total to 917,150. Hurricane Isaias could slow harvest in parts of the Southeast over the weekend, with 2 to 5 inches of rain expected from the Mississippi River to the Atlantic. The Cotlook A Index fell 105 points to 90.65 on Thursday, ICE certified stocks were unchanged at 17,756 bales, and the Adjusted World Price stands at 63.81 cents/lb.
Source: Barchart

U.S. Cotton: Market Shrugs Off a Surprise Increase in the U.S. Crop

Calcot (Cindy Walters): Cotton ended the day and the week higher across the board: December settled at 80.54 cents, up 60 points on the day and 166 points on the week, while the other months gained 175 to 293 points for the week. USDA's reports at noon triggered a quick two-cent sell-off to the daily low before prices recovered. USDA raised the U.S. crop by 239,000 bales to 13.442 million — contrary to expectations of a cut, as Bloomberg's survey had averaged 12.97 million with only two of 12 analysts expecting an increase — and the most discussed surprise was a 60,000-bale rise for Texas. Brazil's crop was raised 500,000 bales to a record 19.0 million, with exports up by the same amount, and world ending stocks rose 822,000 bales to 70.68 million, though still the lowest in 15 years. Open interest remains close to its record at 384,955 contracts, which Calcot finds remarkable as positions change hands, with speculators reducing their net long position for a fifth straight week. Corn fell 4.1% on its own USDA numbers, while crude oil edged higher as Hurricane Isaias shut some U.S. Gulf production. Technically, December posted an inside week, perhaps a sign of it digging in, and closed above its 10-day moving average, which has become a hard fight for bulls since September 1. With December back above 80 cents, the daily trading limit is 400 points from October 12. November options expire on October 16.
Source: Calcot

Turkey: Imports Increasingly Supplied by Brazil as Domestic Crop and Mill Use Shrink

USDA FAS: Turkey's cotton imports are forecast at 5.0 million bales in 2026/27, making it the world's fifth-largest importer, and Brazil overtook the United States as its leading supplier in 2024/25. The rise reflects a shrinking domestic crop: production is forecast at 2.40 million bales, down from 3.05 million in 2025/26 and 3.95 million in 2024/25, on a harvested area of about 275,000 hectares against 400,000 last year, despite a higher yield of 1,900 kg/ha. Mill use is put at 6.8 million bales, unchanged on the year but 21% below its record of five years ago, while exports are forecast to fall almost 50% to 600,000 bales. USDA attributes the pressure on Turkish textiles to persistent high inflation and energy costs, weaker domestic purchasing power, lower orders from the EU, competition from China, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam, and regional instability; mills are turning to cheaper cotton from Brazil and neighbouring Azerbaijan to stay competitive, capacity utilisation is falling and some facilities are closing or relocating. The outlook for a recovery is limited.
Source: USDA FAS

U.S. Cotton: Robinson Sees the Factors Weighing on Futures Starting to Lift

Texas A&M (John Robinson): In his weekly summary written on Thursday, before USDA's October report, Robinson notes that December futures rose about 3 cents early in the week, gave back about 2 and then traded in a narrow range, settling at 79.94 cents on Thursday, while the A Index edged higher and Chinese prices were on holiday. Net upland sales of 165,100 running bales for the week ending October 1 were down from the prior week and weak, and shipments remain below the pace needed for USDA's export target. Through October 5, boll opening was 2 points behind and harvest 2 points ahead of the five-year average, with 33% of the crop rated good to excellent and 30% fair; a strong cool front brought widespread rain to Texas, likely degrading lint quality. Robinson sees the factors that had weighed on ICE cotton appearing to lift, pointing to falling certified stocks as a sign of improving commercial demand and to unfixed on-call sales now exceeding unfixed purchases, which he reads as bullish, while spot trading picked up with demand ranging from very light to moderate.
Source: Texas A&M AgriLife

Global: Satellite-Backed CottonConscience Project Moves to Supply-Chain Pilots

Fibre2Fashion: A cotton traceability project supported by the European Space Agency's ESA Space Solutions, CottonConscience, is moving to pilots with live supply chains after a feasibility study completed in September showed that satellites can distinguish cotton from other crops and provide meaningful farm-level environmental insights. Its Farm Trace system uses Earth observation to identify cotton fields, DNA tagging verifies the fibre's origin, and a Water Trace system reports on water use and environmental risks, with the results fed into the ASK MIRANDA platform that links farm-level evidence to finished products for sourcing, ESG and compliance decisions. The project argues that, with climate pressure growing and traceability rules tightening, supplier declarations and manual records are no longer enough, and that brands should establish evidence on cotton sourcing before buying or designing products rather than after the fact.
Source: Fibre2Fashion

India: Industry Calls for Stable Cotton Prices and Assured Supply

Fibre2Fashion: At a conference organised by the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI) with the Ministry of Textiles and the Cotton Corporation of India on World Cotton Day, industry leaders called for stable, long-term policies on cotton pricing and availability, along with a stronger focus on quality, sustainability, traceability and productivity, which still trails several peer countries. CITI chairman Ashwin Chandran said quality matters more than quantity and urged closer collaboration across the chain, while speakers also highlighted the role of women cotton farmers. The government's Mission for Cotton Productivity, approved in May with ₹5,659.22 crore (about $584 million) for 2026/27 to 2030/31, was a reference point, and memoranda were signed with GIZ, CottonConnect, the Fair Labor Association and TEXPROCIL. Between April and August, textile exports rose 6.94% while apparel fell 9.10%, and the sector is targeting a $350 billion industry and $100 billion of exports by 2030.
Source: Fibre2Fashion

Mali: Target to Process at Least 10% of Its Cotton at Home

APA News: Mali aims to process at least 10% of its national cotton lint production domestically to reduce its dependence on raw exports, its Permanent Representative to the UN, Issa Konfourou, told a World Cotton Day event in New York co-organised with India's mission, calling on international industrial partners and private investors to fund local processing and manufacturing capacity. Across the Cotton-4+ group — Mali, Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad and Côte d'Ivoire — about 98% of the crop is exported as raw fibre without domestic value addition. A multilateral Cotton Partnership aims to mobilise $5 billion over the next decade to build regional textile hubs and create an estimated 500,000 jobs.
Source: APA News

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