U.S. Cotton: Futures Slip Lower on Friday

Barchart: Cotton futures lost 32 to 67 points on Friday, leaving December down 237 points for the week, even as crude oil rose and the dollar eased slightly. USDA data showed 5.665 million RB of 2026/27 cotton sold as of October 22, 16% ahead of last year but only 49% of the USDA export projection, behind the 56% five-year average pace. The Seam sold just 418 bales on October 29 at an average of 71.62 cents/lb. Dec 26 settled at 77.83 (−67), Mar 27 at 81.59 (−66) and May 27 at 83.23 (−63).
Source: Barchart

U.S. Cotton: October Ends Nearly Unchanged, but Momentum Points Lower

Calcot – Cindy Walters: December settled at 77.83, down 67 points on the day, 237 points for the week and 69 points for the month, the weakest of all contracts, a loss of relative strength in the front month that is a poor sign for bulls. It was December's lowest close since October 1, and both closes were the lowest since early July. Despite the weakness, open interest has been slow to liquidate, easing for six sessions since the October 21 record. Trading volume in 2026 has already set a new annual record of 14.3 million contracts, surpassing the full-year 2025 total of 12.06 million. Outside markets had a rough day and month: the Nasdaq fell 2.9% on disappointing technology earnings, silver lost 18.6% and gold 6.9% in October, and corn and wheat dropped more than 10%. Crude oil was the exception, setting a new contract high and gaining 17.8% for the month on fears of escalation in the US-Iran war. The next Calcot comment will be published on November 9.
Source: Calcot

India: Duty-Free Cotton Imports Extended to End-December

CNBC-TV18: India has extended the exemption from its 11% import duty on cotton by two months, to December 31, 2026, easing costs for textile mills facing tight domestic supplies and firm prices. Seed cotton is trading above ₹9,000 per 100 kg, higher than the new-season minimum support price of ₹8,717. Trade estimates cited by Reuters put 2026/27 production below 29 million bales against demand of more than 34 million, with a stock-to-use ratio of about 31%, the lowest in five years, owing to patchy monsoon rains, pest attacks and older GM seed varieties. Imports from the US, Brazil and Australia should benefit, although high US futures, freight costs and a weaker rupee may limit the increase.
Source: CNBC-TV18

U.S. Cotton: Futures Glide Lower and Level Out

Texas A&M – Cotton Marketing Planner: ICE futures drifted lower during the week before settling into a touch-and-go pattern, with December at 78.50 cents on Thursday, while Chinese cotton prices weakened later in the week. The US harvest reached 52%, 7 points ahead of the five-year average, with 89% of bolls open and 33% of the crop rated good to excellent. Export sales improved to 216,500 RB, but shipments slowed and remain below the pace needed for USDA's target. Falling open interest alongside lower settlements early in the week suggested long liquidation, while certificated stocks started to rise. On the positive side, unfixed on-call sales now exceed on-call purchases, which suggests mills may need to buy futures to fix prices.
Source: Texas A&M AgriLife Extension

Europe: European Agriculture Losing Ground in Global Competition

Ypaithros: A study by Oxford Economics for Bayer, based on interviews with about 90 farmers in eight European markets and a survey of more than 8,000 consumers, finds that EU agricultural output grew by only 0.1% a year in 2011–2023, against 1% in the US, 2% globally and 3.3% in Brazil. Average EU output was just 2% higher than in the previous decade, compared with gains of 16% in the US, 44% in Canada and 51% in Brazil. The sector contributes €246 billion to the EU economy and employs about 4.5 million people, while climate-related crop losses already amount to €17.4 billion a year, about 6.4% of crop output. Bayer argues that agriculture should be treated as a strategic pillar of European autonomy, alongside energy and defence, with faster approval of innovations and more proportionate regulation.
Source: Ypaithros

U.S.: For a Chinese Trade Deal, Cotton's Wait Continues

Cotton Grower – Beck Barnes: The recent US-China diplomacy has delivered little for cotton, with artificial intelligence dominating President Xi Jinping's White House visit and agriculture receiving scant attention. US tariffs have had a chilling effect on trade, cutting US cotton exports to China to 400,000 bales in 2025, the lowest in a decade. Cotton is among 1,600 products listed for possible reduced tariff treatment under the US-China Board of Trade framework, but no timeline or rate has been set. Although both countries have found other trading partners since the first trade dispute eight years ago, a deal between the two largest economies would still be a major boost for a market whose profitability is under heavy pressure.
Source: Cotton Grower

China: Long-Staple Seed Cotton Prices Ease Slightly, Lint Stable

SunSirs: Orders for fine cotton yarns of 60s count and above have fallen well short of expectations as the autumn peak season ends, yet long-staple lint quotes in Xinjiang have not followed the sharp corrections in upland cotton. In Aksu and Bayingol, 2025/26 long-staple cotton is offered at RMB 27,600–28,000/t and 2024/25 crop at RMB 26,200–26,500/t. Little 2026/27 long-staple lint is on the market, as gins focus on clearing older stocks and buy cautiously because of stricter bank lending, limited own capital and a shortage of pickers. As upland seed cotton prices in southern Xinjiang fell by RMB 0.20–0.30/kg from early October, long-staple seed cotton eased by RMB 0.10–0.15/kg, to RMB 10.50–10.80/kg on October 26–28.
Source: SunSirs

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