Ouch! Big losses today did more technical damage, breaking key support on futures charts. There isnΆt much new news to add to yesterday other than that deliverable stocks against futures contracts continue to rise and thatΆs spooking die-hard longs on the speculative side out of their positions.

MondayΆs USDA Crop Progress report stated the current crop condition at 44% good to excellent, which was two points above the comparable year-ago reading. Those figures were essentially unchanged from the September report, whereas traders may have been expecting a decline. The harvest was seen as being just 21% complete, well behind year-ago and five-year average readings.

WeΆre seeing more concurrence among other analysts with our ideas that USDA will raise the cotton yield estimate and bump ending stocks significantly; especially if they also cut back the export forecast due to sales lagging where they “ought” to be by now to sustain the current forecast.