A gruesome week. As July futures were liquidated ahead of delivery that contract lost 11 cents in six days. December futures didnΆt suffer that badly, but did hit the lowest level in two years, facing huge global stocks if you count ChinaΆs share and more than adequate stocks even if you donΆt.

USDA releases its annual Acreage Report Monday, June 30th. WeΆve got trade estimates today. Private estimates average 11.11 million acres compared to March intentions of 11.10, a statisically insignificant different. The private estimates are in a pretty wide range, however, from 10.7 million to to 11.5 million. IΆm at the lower end, at 10.9 million. I think cotton acreage will be down about 200,000 acres from March intentions.

We think there was likely some swing to soybeans between late February and late May in the MidSouth and Delta. Reason? Cotton was only 30% planted at the peak of the May rally and December futures gave up about $50 per acre in revenue during the remainder of the planting while November futures were adding about $35 per acre in revenue potential.

History offers little guidance as to what to expect in terms of market reaction. There were 8 years of the past 15 when cotton acreage came in above March intentions; 7 years when it came in lower. The degree of price volatility following surprises was about the same either way, typically .50 to 1.0 change from the previous dayΆs close. Be sure to check the website about noon Monday for our assessment of the actual numbers, market reaction, and any advice changes.