Survey yields average crop estimate of 13.7 million bales. Unfixed on-call positions in December rose by 153 lots on the mill side and 229 lots on producer side. Slight rain chances forecast for Texas Plains.
Cotton futures settled with modest losses Friday as traders pocketed some profits ahead of the weekend and MondayΆs U.S. crop forecast and supply-demand estimates.
Benchmark December closed off 32 points to 88.93 cents, finishing lower for the first time in five sessions and only the second time in nine. It chopped back and forth within a 90-point range established by 7:50 a.m. CDT and settled in the upper half of the inside-day span.
March closed down 28 points to 86.88 cents. For the week, the market gained 373 points in thinly traded October, 395 points in December and 371 points in March.
Volume slowed to an estimated 17,400 lots from 23,857 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 7,425 lots or 31% and EFS 22 lots. Options volume totaled 6,151 calls and 7,384 puts.
A Dow Jones survey of cotton analysts yielded an average U.S. crop estimate of 13.7 million bales within a range of 13.3 million to 14.2 million bales, against USDAΆs July forecast of 13.5 million bales.
Exports were pegged at an average of 11 million bales and ending stocks at 3.1 million bales, unchanged and up 200,000 bales, respectively, from last monthΆs USDA estimates.
Separately, global ending stocks are mostly expected to rise slightly to a new record high. Traders will keep an eye on stocks outside China.
Meanwhile, unfixed on-call positions in December increased 153 lots on the mill side and 229 lots on the producer side last week, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
This hiked the mill holdings to 29,068 lots and the producer position to 12,830 lots. The net call difference narrowed a slight 76 lots to 16,238, which was 11.13% of the rising open interest.
The ratio of the yet-to-be priced mill position to that of producers moved fractionally to 2.19:1 from 2.29:1 the previous week.
In March, mills added 60 lots to edge their unfixed position up to 14,584 lots, while producers were inactive with an unfixed 1,619 lots. The net difference of 19,547 lots represented 66.33% of MarchΆs open interest, and mills had nine contracts on which to fix prices against every one by producers.
Mills fixed 123 lots in May and added 390 lots in July and 9 lots in December 2014, while the only activity by producers beyond December 2013 was the addition of 114 lots in December 2014.
On the crop scene, a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms is forecast for tonight in the West Texas Plains, primarily across the southwestern Panhandle and western South Plains.
The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts of more than 50 miles per hour, small hail and locally heavy rainfall, forecasters say. Rain chances are listed at 20% daily into Sunday.
Hit-and-miss scattered showers earlier produced the most rainfall on the High Plains at midweek when 0.81 of an inch fell at Levelland, 0.61 at Hart, 0.53 at Denver City, 0.45 at Olton and 0.41 at Plains.
Rainfall at Lubbock thus far this month has totaled only 0.11 of an inch, and total precipitation for the year of 8.57 inches is 3.08 inches below normal but up from 5.51 inches last year.
Futures open interest expanded 4,902 lots Thursday to 191,123, with DecemberΆs up 3,122 lots to 157,611 and MarchΆs up 1,504 lots to 24,898. Certificated stocks declined 176 bales to 62,627.
World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index gained 100 points Friday morning to 94.45 cents. The premium to ThursdayΆs December futures settlement widened eight points to 5.20 cents. For the week, the index gained 330 points.
