U.S. 2012-13 export commitments have reached about 99% of the new USDA forecast and shipments stand at about 80% of the projection. Shipments top year-ago exports by about 19%.
Cotton futures waffled between moderate losses and modest gains and finished with slight losses on thin volume Thursday.
Spot July settled down 42 points to 86.03 cents, slightly below the midpoint of its 106-point range from down 75 points at 85.70 to up 31 points at 86.76 cents. It traded inside the prior-day range for the second session in a row.
December closed off 16 points to 85.33 cents, in the middle of its 103-point range from down 68 points at 84.81 cents — just below WednesdayΆs low and a tick above TuesdayΆs low — to up 35 points at 85.84 cents. March dropped 19 points to 85.21 cents.
Volume slowed to an estimated 11,100 lots from 15,277 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 4,677 lots or 31% and EFP 245 lots. Options volume totaled 3,885 calls and 2,213 puts.
U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 82,900 running bales during the week ended May 9, down from 118,600 bales the week before, brought 2012-13 commitments to 12.778 million RB.
Commitments have reached just over 99% of the new USDA export forecast and are 891,400 running bales or 8% ahead of cumulative sales a year ago. Outstanding sales slipped to 2.462 million bales, down about 24% from non-shipped sales a year ago of 3.248 million bales.
All-cotton shipments rose to 330,400 running bales from the prior weekΆs 297,700 bales and boosted exports for the season to 10.316 million bales. This is about 80% of the USDA projection, compared with about 76% of final shipments at the corresponding point last season.
Shipments widened the lead over exports a year ago by 131,300 RB to 1.678 million bales or to about 19%. The latest USDA estimate is for exports to exceed year-ago shipments by 13%,
To achieve the export estimate, shipments need to average roughly 230,600 running bales a week.
New-crop sales slipped to 68,800 bales from 84,000 the previous week, hiking 2013-14 commitments to 1.609 million RB. These bookings are 336,000 bales ahead of forward sales a year ago.
The 2013-14 commitments are about 14% of USDAΆs May forecast for exports next season. A year ago, forward bookings were about 10% of the exports now expected for 2012-13.
Futures open interest expanded 1,169 lots Wednesday to 184,470, with JulyΆs up 1,266 lots to 122,502 and DecemberΆs down 222 lots to 58,518.
Certificated stocks grew 1,294 bales to 509,904. There were 2,122 newly certified bales, 828 bales decertified and 1,686 bales awaiting review.
World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index dropped 50 points Thursday morning to 93.50 cents. The index premium to WednesdayΆs July futures settlement narrowed three points to 7.05 cents.
